Mock Draft Round 1

With the NFL draft behind us, lets take a look at how a the pieces could fall into place in 2008 fantasy drafts.

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota RB -- Round 1, Pick 1. While many people will hate this pick, it wasn’t as difficult as it should have been. LaDainian Tomlinson is clearly the establishment candidate. He has been the undisputed top choice in recent years, and if you value that experience over all else, he is your choice. But if I am choosing No. 1 in my fantasy draft, I take that potential, the player with the highest ceiling, and that has to be Peterson. The Vikings have the best run- blocking line in the NFL, and un like San Diego has established their identity as a run first team. Peterson is a unique talent who average 5.6 yards per carry, while breaking multiple records as a rookie. He is in great position to continue his success and topple the numbers he put up last year.

LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego RB -- Round 1, Pick 2. In Tomlinson's worst NFL season, he delivered 1236 yards and 10 touchdowns. In his best season, he set scoring records with over 2,300 yards and 31 total scores. Tomlinson is still recovering from a sprained MCL, but he expects to be at full strength by the start of the regular season, and for the first time in his career he seems to have something to prove. While the Chargers seem to forget about their super star running back from time to time they will have to lean on him more than ever if they want to get back to the AFC championship game.

Steven Jackson, St. Louis RB - Round 1, Pick 3. After missing all of Weeks 4-7 and most of Week 8 with groin and back injuries, Jackson finished the 2007 season in strong fashion. In the final eight games he averaged 117 yards of offense and scored five touchdowns reminding us all why he was a top 3 pick last season. Despite the Rams' offensive struggles, he was fifth among backs who appeared in at least 10 games in total offense per game (106). The return of Al Saunders to the Rams as offensive coordinator should re-focus the offense around Jackson, who totaled 2,334 yards of offense (fifth all-time) and scored 16 times in 2007. When you’re looking at potential Jackson could be in a class by himself.

Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia RB - Round 1, Pick 4. Over the past two seasons, Westbrook has averaged 2,010 yards of offense and 12 touchdowns. Even with persistent injury concerns, Westbrook has found a way to keep himself among to top and most consistent backs in the fantasy game. In 28 games over the past two seasons (not counting Week 17's), he's averaged 139 yards of offense per game, totaled less than 100 yards just four times, and his season-low in 2007 was 92 yards. Not too bad, at No. 4 I’ll take a chance that he can keep it up on what could be a resurgent year in Philadelphia.

Joseph Addai IND, RB -- Round 1, Pick 5. Despite slowing down considerably down the stretch in 2007, Addai still ended as the fourth ranked back with 1,400-plus yards of offense and 15 tds. Putting his ‘07 fade behind us, Addai is just about everything you could ask for in a top five selection: age (he'll be 25 when the season starts), health (He’s played in 31 of 32 possible regular season games), offense (the Colts afforded Addai more red zone carries in '07 than any other back) and opportunity (rookie Mike Hart will be his backup, and he's not going to keep Addai from pushing 300 carries). While there are a few legit candidates at No. 5: Larry Johnson, Tom Brady and Randy Moss, Addai is far and away the best bet if your looking for an anchor in your fantasy backfield.

Larry Johnson KC, RB - Round 1, Pick 6. After showing the ability to be a top end pick when healthy, Johnson could be a relative steal if there ever is one at No. 6 overall. Johnson is reportedly prepared to enter mini-camp at 100 percent after being sidelined by a cracked fourth metatarsal in his foot, an injury he suffered against the Packers in Week 9. The Chiefs have added one of the top line prospects in the draft with Brandon Albert which should be a significant upgrade to one of the worst O-lines last season(conceded a league- high 55 sacks). With even the slightest upgrade along the line, Johnson should be able to surpass 1800 total yards and 13-plus touchdowns. At age 28, Johnson may be entering the last of his prime years, but under the ball control system run by Herm Edwards and the Chiefs, LJ should prove worthy of the high pick.

Tom Brady NE, QB -- Round 1, Pick 7. I do my best to avoid taking a QB in the first round, but when looking at the draft board it would be hard to pass on someone the caliber of Tom Brady. It would be incredibly foolish to think that Brady will approach 50 TD passes again, but I have a hard time not seeing how, with Moss back, he finishes with anything less than 34 TD passes and 4,000-plus passing yards. Even with that semi conservative estimate, Brady would still be among the top single season performers at quarterback. The Pats have run a pass first, pass second type offense these past few seasons, and with plenty of weapons still at his disposal, Brady should once again anchor many playoff bound teams in the year to come.

Randy Moss NE, WR -- Round 1, Pick 8. Last season Moss was absolutely ridiculous. In breaking the single season scoring record by a receiver, Moss amassed 1493 yards and 23 touchdowns. Last year, Moss showed immediate chemistry with Brady totaling nine 100-yard and eight multi-TD games. Moss was rewarded this off season with a three-year $27 million deal, and teamed with Brady he should haunt the dreams of secondaries again this year. In PPR leagues, Moss is a borderline top five pick, but in standard leagues with the lack of depth at the wide receiver position this is about the right spot to take the best aerial threat in the game.

Marion Barber DAL, RB – Round 1, Pick 9. This pick was the hardest thus far especially with newcomer Felix Jones expected to cut into his carries. Then again Barber did split carries with Jones the past two seasons and still managed to total 28 touchdowns. It is always an advantage to have your fantasy back tied into high powered offenses, and Dallas definitely fits the bill. Barber should see plenty of scoring opportunities, and garbage time carries to pad his stats. Running backs go quickly and just seem to hold more value in 12 team leagues, otherwise I might consider the always consistent Peyton Manning at this position.

Peyton Manning IND, QB – Round 1, Pick 10. Again, I am not an advocate of taking a quarterback in the first round, but it’s a luxury to take someone as consistent as a Peyton Manning. There’s a certain comfort knowing you have a guy that has averaged 32.2 touchdowns over a ten year span. While I understand the rationale behind bargain hunting for a quarterback in Rounds 6-10, running backs seem to always become available throughout the season for the quick and savvy owner (Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham), and that just isn’t the case at quarterback.

Frank Gore SF, RB – Round 1, Pick 11. Mike Martz has come into town and promised to build around Gore. Frank has all the tools to once again place amongst the top producers at his position, he can catch the ball out of the backfield, pick up the tough yards, and even pick up the blitz when asked. It’s probably no coincidence that San Francisco won each of the four games in which Gore scored a touchdown, unfortunately that happened in only four games. Despite it all, Gore still finished 2007 as a top ten running back, and if they find some consistent QB play in te bay area, Gore could be a steal at No. 11.

Jamal Lewis CLE, RB – Round 1, Pick 12. Two years ago I would have laughed at myself if I knew I’d be pushing Lewis as a first round selection, but a lot like Marion Barber, his high powered offense has some say in his position. The Browns offense is simply loaded with guys with high ceilings: Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow, even the O- line with Joe Thomas, this has allowed Lewis to excel even as he enters his eighth year. When your drafting a fantasy back you are looking for someone who is going to get opportunities to score, and Lewis led the league in carries from the 5 yards-and-in last year, and had a sneaky 248 yards through the air. Beyond that, the Browns inked Lewis to a three year deal, and chose to avoid drafting a running back in April so Lewis has a strangle hold on his spot. If he manages to stay healthy there is no reason why Lewis can’t once again find himself amongst the top ten backs in the league.

Looking At Running Backs in Committee

It’s a funny thing to watch a sport evolve. Back in the day it was common for a starting pitcher to go out and throw 150 pitches in complete nine inning game, a decade later and every pitcher works on a strict pitch count. The hard fouls we frequently saw handed out by players like Bill Laimbeer, Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars from Pistons in the late 80's would now result in a Flagrant 2, ejection and possible suspensions. Change is everywhere in sports, and the NFL is no different.

The days of the feature back are slowly slipping away. Sure there are still a few examples here and there with workhorses like Clinton Portis, Edgerrin James, and LaDainian Tomlinson still racking up 300+ carries a season, but for the most part the committee has taken over. The committee hasn’t been all bad, tandems like Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones- Drew showed us last year that committees can still be productive in fantasy, while others (Denver) left us constantly guessing. Let us take a look a few situations that could shake the fantasy world.

Rashard Mendenhall/ Willie Parker- Pittsburgh Steelers: Despite winning my league last season, I still haven’t forgotten what a massive disappointment Willie Parker was to my fantasy team. After scoring 16 touchdowns in 2006, Parker scored just two last year before breaking his leg in week 16 (That would be the fantasy championship game for standard leagues). This season ‘fast’ Willie might not get a chance to redeem himself after his down year as the Steelers welcome perhaps the most complete back from the collegiate level in Mendenhall. Further hurting Parker’s value is the fact that he struggled so mightily in the red- zone last season. The Steelers actually turned to Najeh Davenport in that role relegating Parker to a yardage back and not much more. Still, Parker is coming off three straight 1,200-yard seasons and the prospect of a two-back backfield shouldn't signal a death knell for a player's fantasy value. Just ask Fred Taylor (when healthy) and Deuce McAllister (when healthy). Heck even Chester Taylor remained useful. Parker should still be valuable in formats where yards matter, but don’t expect a return to double digit scores.

Mendenhall could battle Jonathan Stewart as the most productive rookie back if things swing his way. Nicknamed "The Undertaker" because of the punishment he inflicts on opposing tacklers, the Steelers' first-round pick is the perfect blend of power, speed, blocking and durability. Playing for a resurgent Illini club last year, the workhorse broke Illinois' single-season touchdown mark with 19 scores. He also tallied eight 100-yard games, including 155 yards versus USC in the Rose Bowl, and averaged a sparkling 6.4 yards per carry in 13 contests. Bruce Arians told the Pittsburgh Post Gazette on April 29 that he would like to install a pony backfield this season. If that happens, Mendenhall will net roughly 12-15 carries per game and most, if not all, of Pittsburgh's goal-line carries. People will reach for McFadden in Round 2, but Mendenhall will be more the profitable rookie based on draft position in the late-fourth to mid-fifth rounds.

Darren McFadden/ Justin Fargas- Oakland Raiders: Fresh off his first 1,000 yard season, and a new contract worth upwards of $17 million, Justin Fargas will have to fend off a bevy of talented backs if he wants to repeat last seasons success. Fargas will likely take a backseat to McFadden at some point in the season, if not immediately. Fargas should still sneak in 10-15 carries per game, but will be hard pressed to put up numbers worthy of a fantasy No. 2, but he should be owned in case of injury or a change in the Raiders philosophy. If you want to make the Taylor-Peterson comparison here, just remember that Chester still rushed for 844 yards and seven TDs in 14 games last year.
On name and hype alone, McFadden will likely be the top rookie selected in fantasy drafts. The most recent mock draft saw McFadden going with the 23rd overall pick, while Fargas slipped all the way to the 60th pick. While McFadden dominated against the toughest competition in college, he would be hard pressed to live up the expectations I would have for him if I drafted him that early. McFadden will have to learn the pro game which will likely cost him big carries at the start of the season, he also has a very capable back in Fargas backing him up, with uber talent Michael Bush waiting for a crack of daylight to show his worth. That being said, just like Adrian Peterson, the sky is the limit for the kid, though the Raiders offensive line is nowhere near the level of the Vikings.

Marion Barber/ Felix Jones- Dallas Cowboys: Marion Barber looks poised to be even more productive this year than in years past. Recent mock drafts had Barber going as early as No. 9 overall in 12- team formats. While many fear Felix stealing carries from Barber lets remember, that he had to share with Julius Jones the last two years, and that didn't keep him from scoring 28 touchdowns. Furthering aiding Barbers value is the potency of the Dallas offense. Lets face it, in a high powered offense there are just more scoring chances, and for Barber there is a lot of quality garbage time to pad his numbers. Look for Barber to finally break the 1,000 yard barrier this season while continuing to frequent the end zone on a regular basis.
Felix Jones is an interesting pick, Jerry Jones seems infatuated with him, so much so he passed on Mendenhall for the former Razorback. Jones seems like a good bet to snake 10-15 touches per game from Barber when things are all said and done, but will be hard pressed to find the consistency needed to be a fantasy factor on a weekly basis. No one doubt Jones’ ability, he possesses tantalizing speed, and strength that often gets overlooked when you split touches with someone as flashy as Darren McFadden. Jones definitely has potential, but will likely be limited to more of a yardage type role similar to Willie Parker. That being said, like Barber, Jones has the luxury of being on the Cowboys and figures to see his share of garbage time as well. Draft Jones, but know he wont be starter worthy unless something happens to Barber.

Jonathan Stewart/ DeAngelo Williams- Carolina Panthers: Early reports have Stewart on pace to be fully recovered from off-season toe surgery by the start of training camp. By far one of the more complete backs from the draft, he has the size of a fullback (5-10, 235 pounds), the strength of an offensive lineman and the quickness of a sprinter( timed in at 4. 4 at the combine). Playing with a style that reminds pro scouts of Kansas City's Larry Johnson, Stewart proved, even through injuries, perfectly capable of handling the rushing load. According to the Charlotte Observer, "Stewart figures to start at running back and split carries with DeAngelo Williams," and that's all I need to hear. If Stewart gets a significant percentage of DeShaun Foster's 247 carries, you've got a great fourth round RB. One would assume that Stewart will get most of the goal line action as well.
DeAngelo Williams was truly one of my favorite picks in 2006, but just never seemed to get on track. With Stewart’s arrival, owners shouldn’t expect a monster year out of Williams, but last years improvement warrants a roster spot and some optimism. Last season, Williams showed some of the burst he had at Memphis averaging 5.0 yards per carry after averaging 4.1 ypg as a rookie. In a timeshare with DeShaun Foster, Williams rushed 144 times for 717 yards, while adding 23 receptions for 175 yards and five total touchdowns ( 4 rushing, 1 receiving). Williams should be considered a high upside back up. Carolina looks like they have made legit upgrades on the offensive line, and despite all the talent, Stewart is still an unproven rookie. Considering he’s slipped as far as the ninth round in recent mock drafts, Williams could turn into one of the better value picks of this years drafts.

Jay Cutler Enters ‘Magical’ 3rd Year with Shanahan & Denver Broncos

After being selected 11th overall by the Broncos in 2006, Jay Cutler looks primed to step forward as a team leader and a fantasy factor. The Broncos of old have all moved on, Rod Smith and Matt Lepsis have called it careers, long time kicked Jason Elam now resides in Atlanta, and even disgruntled receiver Javon Walker was shipped to the black hole in Oakland. This is Cutler’s team, he is the face of the franchise, the vocal leader on and off the field, and if history is any indication this is his year to burst on the fantasy scene while leading Denver to the playoffs.

This isn’t just some arbitrary prediction, year three is when things seem to materialize for quarterbacks under Mike Shanahan’s offense as his explains to the Denver Post:

"Usually, by the third year, a quarterback starts to feel much more comfortable with the system, the supporting cast, what they need to do and what they don't," Shanahan said. "The biggest growth I've seen with players is coming into their third year."

If anyone can predict a quarterbacks maturation process, it’s Shanahan. It starts with his days as an offensive coordinator in San Francisco. After joining the team in 1992, he watched Steve Young as he threw 35 touchdowns in 1994 on his way to leading the Niners to a Super Bowl victory over San Diego.

Next on the list is John Elway. In 1997, Shanahan’s third year as Broncos head coach, Elway led the team to their first ever Super Bowl, throwing a career high 27 touchdowns in the process.

Even the non future Hall of Fame quarterbacks excelled in their third year under Shanahan. After going 6-10, Brian Griese led the Broncos to an 11-5 record in 2000, throwing 19 touchdowns in his only Pro Bowl season in the NFL. Jake Plummer also had his only Pro Bowl season in his third year under Shanahan (2005), while leading the Broncos to the AFC Championship Game where they lost to the Steelers.

If history has any say in the matter, then Jay Cutler is destined to fulfill the lofty expectations the Denver faithful have for him. For fantasy owners, Cutler had a good enough year last year to expect improvement, while not blowing his status as a mid- tier option. Despite his supporting cast struggling with injuries all last season, from star play makers Javon Walker, and Travis Henry to an O-Line that was ravaged by injuries, Cutler still managed to place in the top 13 in all major offensive categories. Cutler made his name with his rocket arm, and ranked 10th in the league last season in passing yards with 3,497, 12th in QB rating at 88.1, 11th in completion percentage at 63.6% (minimum 300 pass attempts), and 13th in passing touchdowns with 20.

SUPPORTING CAST
This season, Cutler has seen the Broncos bolster his supporting cast. The biggest acquisition likely being 1st round pick Ryan Clady, who is expected to start from day one at left tackle. Along with center Casey Wiegmann, guard/ center Kory Lichtensteiger their fourth round pick out of Bowling Green, and tackle Tyler Polumbus an undrafted free agent from Colorado, Clady should help strengthen a Broncos offensive line that was their strength in years past.

The Broncos have also added depth to the wide receiver position through free agency. Last year the position was left extremely thin with injuries to Walker, and Brandon Stokely, leaving practice squad standout Glenn Martinez with a starting role. This season Cutler will now enjoy a group of veteran receivers (Keary Colbert, Darrell Jackson, Sammie Parker) that can complement Brandon Marshall. Colbert and Jackson will likely see the most reps, with Jackson holding the edge on the No. 2 position due to experience. The additions should help Cutler immensely when teams look to double Marshall, but individually none of these receivers will likely have fantasy value.

If the offensive line is truly strengthened with the off season additions, the Denver backfield should regain its form as one of the best in the league. While Travis Henry single handedly derailed a few fantasy teams last year, he did lead the league in rushing through week 4 before suffering the partially torn PCL, and going through the positive drug test scandal. Henry is definitely a player in the decline, but may prove to have a little left in the tank for a run in 2008. With last seasons emergence of Selvin Young, and the Broncos drafting of Ryan Torain who Shanahan considers a 1st round talent , Henry won’t be looked at as the workhorse he was considered at the beginning of last year. Young proved himself as a speedy home run threat as both a runner and receiver a season ago, and should find work as a third down back with starter potential if injuries strike. Last season Henry and Young combine for 307 carries, 1,419 yards and five touchdowns, so there is plenty of potential for fantasy owners in Denver. Torain should be in the heads of fantasy owners as well, with Henry’s injury history, and Shanahans penchant for finding late round backs that fit his system, Torain could find his way into the lineup.

As far as Torain goes, he was the leader of a surprise Arizona State squad a season ago before suffering a season ending injury. Through the first five games, Torain carried the ball 110 times for 553 yards a 5 yard per carry average before knee injuries struck. Now fully recovered, Torain looks to be the biggest benefactor and have a chance to add his name to the list of 1,000 rushers in Denver, if something happens to Henry or Young. That being said he could also be a flash in the pan like Mike Bell.

CUTLER PREDICTIONS
While the Broncos face a tougher schedule than most would like when predicting a breakout year, Cutler is clearly stepping into his best situation since coming to Denver. The biggest concern will remain on the development and cohesion of the offensive line, but if they hold up, Cutler has enough play makers at his disposal to be a top 8 fantasy quarterback. Expect Cutlers pass attempts to increase in 2008, and his offensive production to follow.

I see Cutler putting up a Hasselbeck like line, of 3950 yards, 26 touchdowns, 14 interceptions. If you miss out on the upper tier of quarterbacks, Cutler will likely be available at a bargain price, and may make the leap the Roethlisberger made last season. One thing is for certain, the pressure is on Mike Shanahan and Cutler to make the Broncos a playoff team in 2008, and so far they are undefeated.