Michael Turner Looks to Shine for Atlanta Falcons

After spending four years as LaDainian Tomlinson's super back up, Michael Turner won't have to share the spotlight anymore as he heads to Atlanta. Turner bolted from the sunny shores of San Diego as an unrestricted free agent, looking to give the Falcons some much needed punch in their running game, signing a 6- year, $34.5 million deal ($15 million guaranteed). While he has never rushed more than 80 times in a season, Turner is no stranger in the fantasy community, as the long time back up to the unanimous No. 1 selection, he was usually taken inexplicably early as a handcuff/ injury sleeper. Heading into next season's fantasy drafts, owners will once again be forced to use one of their top selections to obtain Turner's services.

Despite his lack of experience as a full-time back, football fans everywhere have undoubtedly seen Turner in numerous highlight reels. The talent is there, Turner has turned in a 100- yard performance once in each of the past three seasons, despite never receiving more than 13 carries in any of those games. For that very reason, Turner is expected by many to be solid if not spectacular next season.

While many other owners, including me, will deploy a wait-and-see approach with Turner before using a top 20 selection on him, there is a good amount of evidence that says he will succeed. Nicknamed “The Burner,” he has that combination of size (5' 10, 237) and speed that allow him to break through the hole and occasionally over oncoming defenders. Over the course of his career, Turner has accumulated 228 rush attempts and holds a 5.5-yard average per carry, numbers that if carried over to next season would make him worthy of a top-round pick.

Although his averages are very impressive, his backup status also make them incredibly misleading. To bring some perspective, let us take a look at last year's playoff games against Indianapolis and New England (the only times Turner has received at least 17 carries in a game). Against the Colts in the divisional playoffs, Turner had a career high 17 carries -- his previous high was 15 on January 2, 2005, against the Chiefs -- for 71 yards, a 4.2 average. He also showed the ability to break off the long run with a 19-yarder. In the conference finals, Turner got another 17 carries, churning out 65 yards, a 3.8 average. This isn't saying that Turner isn't fully capable of being a top back, just that as a starter he will not average 5.5 yards per carry. Granted, running in the playoffs is usually a bit tougher than against tired defenses in the fourth quarter of a blowout.

Turner will likely be used as the inside power back, with Jerious Norwood as the speed back. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey plans to use similar-style rushing system to what the Steelers did when they featured Jerome Bettis from 2001-02. While Turner should be given every chance to thrive in that role, the instability at quarterback could put more pressure on the rushing game to perform.

In the end, Turner should have a chance to break out with a 1,000-yard season but is not likely to be a good first- or second-round value. Turner should be looked at as a solid No. 2 back with high upside and should be targeted late in the second round or after. With many other more established backs available, along with the elite quarterbacks and receivers, Turner is a gamble if taken too soon. 2008 Prediction: 270 carries, 1,188 yards, eight touchdowns, 4.4 ypc.

Jerrious Norwood, Atlanta's "X" Factor
If it's not now then it may never happen for Jerious Norwood, the 5' 11 speedster out of Mississippi State. Norwood has proven to be the ultimate home run threat, and should excel if given 10-15 touches per game. Norwood is seen as the lightning to Turner's thunder, making one of the better running back duos in the NFL if all goes right.

In limited action the past two seasons, Norwood has averaged an amazing 6.2 yards per carry. Still, he only got as many as 11 carries once in all of 2007. Stuck behind long-time veteran Warrick Dunn, Norwood's style wasn't an ideal complement. With Turner now in Atlanta, however, Norwood should finally get the touches he needs and give us the highlight-reel material we have been expecting from him.

It will be interesting to see how the carries are divided initially in the Atlanta backfield. Because of Turner's inexperience as a feature back, one would expect him to receive 15-20 carries per game, leaving 10-15 carries for Norwood. In this type of timeshare, both backs could hold value, though as a No. 2 or flex-play options. While it's hard not get excited about Norwood's potential, don't overpay for a No. 3 back. Norwood will likely receive the more inconsistent split of the two backs, and while he should still have decent numbers at the end of the season, he will be hard pressed to show consistency in that type of role.
2008 Prediction: 140 carries, 714 yards, four touchdowns, 5.2 ypc

Like with all running games, success will depend on the offensive line, a unit that at moment isn't established. The Falcons ranked 26th in the NFL in rush yards last season, and are expected to address both their tackle positions in the upcoming draft. With Atlanta holding 10 draft selections overall and four within the top 48 picks, their line could get a huge boost in the coming weeks. Look for the Falcons rushing attack to be much improved in 2008.