Jay Cutler Enters ‘Magical’ 3rd Year with Shanahan & Denver Broncos

After being selected 11th overall by the Broncos in 2006, Jay Cutler looks primed to step forward as a team leader and a fantasy factor. The Broncos of old have all moved on, Rod Smith and Matt Lepsis have called it careers, long time kicked Jason Elam now resides in Atlanta, and even disgruntled receiver Javon Walker was shipped to the black hole in Oakland. This is Cutler’s team, he is the face of the franchise, the vocal leader on and off the field, and if history is any indication this is his year to burst on the fantasy scene while leading Denver to the playoffs.

This isn’t just some arbitrary prediction, year three is when things seem to materialize for quarterbacks under Mike Shanahan’s offense as his explains to the Denver Post:

"Usually, by the third year, a quarterback starts to feel much more comfortable with the system, the supporting cast, what they need to do and what they don't," Shanahan said. "The biggest growth I've seen with players is coming into their third year."

If anyone can predict a quarterbacks maturation process, it’s Shanahan. It starts with his days as an offensive coordinator in San Francisco. After joining the team in 1992, he watched Steve Young as he threw 35 touchdowns in 1994 on his way to leading the Niners to a Super Bowl victory over San Diego.

Next on the list is John Elway. In 1997, Shanahan’s third year as Broncos head coach, Elway led the team to their first ever Super Bowl, throwing a career high 27 touchdowns in the process.

Even the non future Hall of Fame quarterbacks excelled in their third year under Shanahan. After going 6-10, Brian Griese led the Broncos to an 11-5 record in 2000, throwing 19 touchdowns in his only Pro Bowl season in the NFL. Jake Plummer also had his only Pro Bowl season in his third year under Shanahan (2005), while leading the Broncos to the AFC Championship Game where they lost to the Steelers.

If history has any say in the matter, then Jay Cutler is destined to fulfill the lofty expectations the Denver faithful have for him. For fantasy owners, Cutler had a good enough year last year to expect improvement, while not blowing his status as a mid- tier option. Despite his supporting cast struggling with injuries all last season, from star play makers Javon Walker, and Travis Henry to an O-Line that was ravaged by injuries, Cutler still managed to place in the top 13 in all major offensive categories. Cutler made his name with his rocket arm, and ranked 10th in the league last season in passing yards with 3,497, 12th in QB rating at 88.1, 11th in completion percentage at 63.6% (minimum 300 pass attempts), and 13th in passing touchdowns with 20.

SUPPORTING CAST
This season, Cutler has seen the Broncos bolster his supporting cast. The biggest acquisition likely being 1st round pick Ryan Clady, who is expected to start from day one at left tackle. Along with center Casey Wiegmann, guard/ center Kory Lichtensteiger their fourth round pick out of Bowling Green, and tackle Tyler Polumbus an undrafted free agent from Colorado, Clady should help strengthen a Broncos offensive line that was their strength in years past.

The Broncos have also added depth to the wide receiver position through free agency. Last year the position was left extremely thin with injuries to Walker, and Brandon Stokely, leaving practice squad standout Glenn Martinez with a starting role. This season Cutler will now enjoy a group of veteran receivers (Keary Colbert, Darrell Jackson, Sammie Parker) that can complement Brandon Marshall. Colbert and Jackson will likely see the most reps, with Jackson holding the edge on the No. 2 position due to experience. The additions should help Cutler immensely when teams look to double Marshall, but individually none of these receivers will likely have fantasy value.

If the offensive line is truly strengthened with the off season additions, the Denver backfield should regain its form as one of the best in the league. While Travis Henry single handedly derailed a few fantasy teams last year, he did lead the league in rushing through week 4 before suffering the partially torn PCL, and going through the positive drug test scandal. Henry is definitely a player in the decline, but may prove to have a little left in the tank for a run in 2008. With last seasons emergence of Selvin Young, and the Broncos drafting of Ryan Torain who Shanahan considers a 1st round talent , Henry won’t be looked at as the workhorse he was considered at the beginning of last year. Young proved himself as a speedy home run threat as both a runner and receiver a season ago, and should find work as a third down back with starter potential if injuries strike. Last season Henry and Young combine for 307 carries, 1,419 yards and five touchdowns, so there is plenty of potential for fantasy owners in Denver. Torain should be in the heads of fantasy owners as well, with Henry’s injury history, and Shanahans penchant for finding late round backs that fit his system, Torain could find his way into the lineup.

As far as Torain goes, he was the leader of a surprise Arizona State squad a season ago before suffering a season ending injury. Through the first five games, Torain carried the ball 110 times for 553 yards a 5 yard per carry average before knee injuries struck. Now fully recovered, Torain looks to be the biggest benefactor and have a chance to add his name to the list of 1,000 rushers in Denver, if something happens to Henry or Young. That being said he could also be a flash in the pan like Mike Bell.

CUTLER PREDICTIONS
While the Broncos face a tougher schedule than most would like when predicting a breakout year, Cutler is clearly stepping into his best situation since coming to Denver. The biggest concern will remain on the development and cohesion of the offensive line, but if they hold up, Cutler has enough play makers at his disposal to be a top 8 fantasy quarterback. Expect Cutlers pass attempts to increase in 2008, and his offensive production to follow.

I see Cutler putting up a Hasselbeck like line, of 3950 yards, 26 touchdowns, 14 interceptions. If you miss out on the upper tier of quarterbacks, Cutler will likely be available at a bargain price, and may make the leap the Roethlisberger made last season. One thing is for certain, the pressure is on Mike Shanahan and Cutler to make the Broncos a playoff team in 2008, and so far they are undefeated.