A Site providing up to date opinons, advice and late breaking news for all fantasy sports. Where office chumps learn to become champions. This Blog is affiliated with Fantasy Baseball Express. Please visit http://www.fantasybaseballexpress.com/ for more Sports related advice and opinions. For additional writing by Aaron Sobel please go to www.joshhoward.com where I am the head writer for Dallas Mavericks Forward Josh Howard, and www.profantasysports.com where I write weekly NFL columns.

Apr 28, 2008

Josh Howard Rises Above More Than Just The Rim

The All- Star break is usually a time of celebration and rest for NBA players, for No. 5 it was another test of maturity and mental toughness. Home, in Winston- Salem, NC, Josh attended his third funeral in seven months, paying his respects to his great grandmother on his father’s side.

Three months later, Josh and the Mavs are in the midst of a playoff battle with New Orleans, and if the Mavs stand a chance of advancing, No. 5 will have to break past the slumps, the media, and even the heartbreak of off- court losses.

"Yeah, I've had tough things happen in my life," Howard says, responding to a question. "I realized I had to get over it, do my job and that's it.

"But there's stuff I don't understand. It's like you play so hard, you have one, two bad weeks and people are ready to throw you under the bus."

His whole life has been one challenge after another, at only 3 months, doctors feared Josh would never walk normally, they cracked his bowed leg bones and encased them in plaster. Now just days away from his 28th birthday, Josh remains heavy hearted with the deaths of his college coach, Skip Prosser, in July, his god-grandmother in January and great-grandmother in February.

“TRUST & BELIEVE”
In honor of his late coach Skip Prosser, No. 5 entered the season with two new tattoos, with the purpose of helping him remember and succeed. With the word "Skip" etched across his right biceps and "Trust" atop his right wrist, Josh looks to exude the same type of intensity he did when he was part of the 2003 Wake Forest squad that rode the coach's "Trust and Believe" mantra to the school's first Atlantic Coast Conference title in 41 years.

Josh was in town for his annual summer basketball camp for at-risk kids when Prosser passed. As Josh was conducting camp the next day he was visited by Sadie Brown, one of the women who helped raise him. She would often cook Josh breakfast and reward him with candy, this time she fell into her god-grandson's arms crying, informing him she had cancer.

"I'll never forget that, either," he says. "I gave her the big, 'You're not going to pass; you're going to be here for me.' "

HAPPY BIRTHDAY MOM
With the trials and tribulations, Josh has been through this past year he has also had his moments of joy. On October 1st, 2007, Josh phoned his mom, Nancy Henderson on her way to work:

"Happy birthday, Mom. You don't have to go to work anymore. Your birthday present is your retirement plan."

When his mother who had Josh at age 18 heard the news, she pulled over and cried.

For Christmas, Josh invited his entire family to his 6,283-square-foot, $1.2 million home in North Dallas, where he lives with his brother Stephen Howard, a 23-year-old business major at Paul Quinn College. Josh was able to gift his 16-year-old sister, Jordan, the laptop that she'd wanted, while welcoming his Aunt Phyllis Marshall, the executive director of Josh's foundation, his stepfather Terry Henderson, and of course his mother Nancy. Nancy says the house is "quiet and peaceful, just like Joshua," and that he watches out over Stephen.

"To see him now is so amazing," Nancy says. "Every time I think about it, I cry, I thank God, just seeing where he is.

"I'm sure not having a relationship [with his birth father] does affect him, but I think step by step it's become easier. I've always taught my kids that sometimes things don't work out like we want them, to forgive because you have to forgive and keep going."
FORGIVE & FORGET
In his ongoing maturation process, Josh forgave the woman who last February had him believing he was the father of her baby boy. He even missed two games to witness the birth. His mother Nancy said she had suspicions, so she wasn't surprised when Josh learned he isn't the father.

"I'm not the guy to be played with, but I forgave her," he says. "I understand things do happen. It was like a big test, just letting me find out who I was. Because I carried the situation through like any man would do if it was his child."

DRIVEN TO SUCCEED
Through this trying year, Josh has still managed to finish the regular season with career-high averages for points, rebounds and assists. He is driven by the sacrifices made by his mother and grandmother, by the photos of Skip Prosser and Sadie Brown on his bedroom dresser, and by being thrown under the bus by fans and media.
MEETING HIS FATHER
After seeing Josh briefly at his grandmothers funeral, Kevin Robinson contacted Josh’s mother Nancy to arrange a meeting. Josh agreed to see the father he didn’t meet until age 11.

"Meeting him and realizing he couldn't do anything for me made me realize I'd never be like him," Howard says.

Josh stays in touch with his three half-sisters, but not Robinson. Only the February death of hiss great-grandmother Sally, Robinson's grandmother, brought father and son together. Briefly, awkwardly.

"Even though he wasn't in my life, she knew who I was and that I was there for her," Howard says. "So I think it was tougher on him.

"It's probably eating him up now just to see that I'm successful. I don't have to cuss him out or say anything to him."

Apr 27, 2008

Minnesota Vikings Pay Big For Bernard Berrian

After only four years in the league- all with the Bears in Chicago- and a Super Bowl under his belt, Bernard Berrian is taking his game to division rival Minnesota. Despite never topping 1,000 yards or scoring more than six touchdowns, the Vikings dished out a hefty 6- year, $42 million contract with roster and signing bonus incentives raising the value up to $58 million.

Fantasy owners should know not to pay similar value for Berrian in their drafts. Despite being a talented receiver, Berrian has consistently been plagued by dropped balls, which usually doesn't just go away after four seasons. A move to a team featuring Tavaris Jackson as the starting quarterback is also a hit to Berrian's value. Last season, Berrian amassed 951 yards and five touchdowns, which made him a serviceable No. 3 receiver or flex play option. He surpassed his previous career high of 51 receptions with 71, averaging 59.4 yards per game, though his yards per catch dipped from 15.2 to 13.4. Point being is that Berrian is a good receiver but $58 million better buy a bit more if it was my team.

Berrian should step in as a nice complement to Sidney Rice, who is an intriguing prospect in his own right. With the Vikings being a run-first offense, Berrian may be hard pressed to repeat his 71 receptions from a season ago. Until Tavaris Jackson or another quarterback proves they can make consistent plays in the passing game, Coach Brad Childress will lean heavily on star running back Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor taking advantage of their massive offensive line. Look for Berrian to split attention with Rice in the passing game and post similar numbers to those in the inept Bears offense. 2008 Projections: 68 receptions, 945 yards, and six touchdowns.

Last Season the Vikings passing attack ranked 28th in the NFL with only 171.6 yards per game. Jackson, in his second year out of Alabama State, started 12 games and finished with a completion percentage of 58 percent and a touchdown: interception ration of 9:12. Bobby Wade, who led the team with 54 receptions for 547 yards, should drop to third on the depth chart entering the season. Sidney Rice should get ample opportunity to showcase his talents after showing flashes late last season. Rice had four big games last season, catching a touchdown in each. In those games he averaged 4.5 receptions, 69 yards and a score. Rice should emerge as an important cog in this offense. 2008 Projections: 59 receptions, 714 yards, six touchdowns.

Apr 18, 2008

Josh Howard, Grows From Role Player to Cornerstone


NUMEROLOGY

5: The number of times The Show scored 30 or more points in a game this season.
17: The number of free throws attempted by No. 5 against Utah, Dec. 8, 2007, a career high.
20: The number of points he averaged this season, a career high, 2nd on the Mavericks, and 28th in the NBA.
36: The number of minutes Josh averaged this season, a career high, tops on the Mavericks, and 35th in the NBA.
47: The number of points Josh scored against Utah, Dec. 8, 2007, a personal record and sixth in franchise history.
312: The number of free throws No. 5 made this season, a personal record, and good for 35th in the NBA.
567: The number of field goals made by The Show this season, a career high, 2nd on the Mavs, and 25th in the NBA.
1,247: The number of field goal attempts from No. 5 on the season, a career high and 21st in the NBA.
1,513: The number of points scored by The Show on the season, a career high, 2nd on the Mavs, and 30th in the NBA.
2,757: The total minutes played on the season by Josh, a career high and good for 40th in the NBA.

GAME OF THE YEAR
On December 8th, 2007, The Show had the best game of his young career. In a high scoring match against the Utah Jazz, Josh was able to top his previous best by 17, and claim the sixth highest scoring total in franchise history. No. 5 had the entire package working that night taking it to the rim, hitting from outside, and getting to the line a career high 17 times. His line: 14-of-19 shooting, 4-of-5 on 3-pointers and 15-of-17 on free throws, plus 10 rebounds, two assists and a block.

Utah coach Jerry Sloan summed up the performance of No. 5 best:

"We didn't have much of an answer for Howard. We couldn't stop him."

ONE LINERS
No. 5 when asked on his improved game:

"Not taking anything away from defensive players, but that's how I feel," Howard said. "I've worked on my game so much where I can go either way, left or right, pull up either way, left or right, get to the basket, find the open man or whatever."

"I took the shots that were given to me," Howard said after a 120-115 victory @ Golden State. "Ten-for-17 ain't bad. I'm one of those guys where I can create my own shot in any given situation. So if I see an opening, I'm going to take it."

“I had my mind made up,” Howard said of taking control. “I didn’t have such a good first half overall. We need wins with Dirk out. We have to have guys come in night in and night out, and overall, the team effort was there.”

No. 5 when asked what Dirk’s presence meant to the team after returning from injury:

“Just seeing Dirk out there gave us a lot of life,” Howard said. “His presence is big on this team and we came out and played hard for him. He showed a lot of energy when he was on the court and that carried over to everyone.”

AS SEEN BY
After racking up 23 points and 14 rebounds in a Mavs win over Portland, Jerry Stackhouse spoke highly of No. 5:

"He's our fire-starter. He gets the party jumping. That's his game."

Dallas assistant Paul Westphal spoke about No. 5's improvement, and expectations for him.

"I think he's taken a jump. He's gotten the better of an awful lot of good players this year, big-name guys who really can't do anything with him on certain nights. That's why he can call 17 points and eight or nine rebounds a slump. He's taken a step to a level where it's not unreasonable to expect him to get the best of his matchup every night."

Dallas coach Avery Johnson spoke on The Show’s growth this season:

"He's really mixing up his game now, but I'd say the biggest key for his game in this stretch has been his consistency on defense. Josh, right now, has to guard the primary scorer. That's new territory for him and he's rising to the challenge,'' coach Avery Johnson said. "I like his physicality, the way he's getting into scorers and getting into their space. This was a big challenge for him tonight. We've seen the Jason Richardson highlights enough."

Dallas coach Avery Johnson spoke on Josh’s development as a leader in Dallas:

“It may not be time for him to feel comfortable putting himself in the quote-unquote leadership [role], but he understands that he has a huge responsibility,” Johnson said of Howard. “He respects the leadership that we have on the team, but he knows what his role is for us and a lot of nights it’s to be our best player and to be a leader.”

David Moore of the Dallas Morning News argues quite convincingly that Josh could be the best:

“We've talked for the last two-and-a-half seasons about Josh Howard's dramatic improvement.
Howard has increased his scoring average for the fifth consecutive season and is at 21.1 points. Denver's Carmelo Anthony (25.2) and Golden State's Stephen Jackson (21.5) are the only two small forwards in the Western Conference who average more, and it should be pointed out that Jackson spends at lot of his time at power forward in the Warriors small, quick lineup.
Howard averages more rebounds and shoots a better percentage than Anthony and Jackson. He's a much better defender than Anthony.”
“So here's the question: How many small forwards in the Western Conference are better than Howard?”

STAT OF THE UNION
While playing in 76 games this season, The Show has averaged career highs in nearly every offensive category. In the process of emerging as a go- to option for the Mavs, Josh is averaging 19.9 points per game, 7.0 rebounds, 2.2 assists, 0.8 steals, 0.4 blocks in a team high 36.3 minutes per game.

Apr 16, 2008

Michael Turner Looks to Shine for Atlanta Falcons

After spending four years as LaDainian Tomlinson's super back up, Michael Turner won't have to share the spotlight anymore as he heads to Atlanta. Turner bolted from the sunny shores of San Diego as an unrestricted free agent, looking to give the Falcons some much needed punch in their running game, signing a 6- year, $34.5 million deal ($15 million guaranteed). While he has never rushed more than 80 times in a season, Turner is no stranger in the fantasy community, as the long time back up to the unanimous No. 1 selection, he was usually taken inexplicably early as a handcuff/ injury sleeper. Heading into next season's fantasy drafts, owners will once again be forced to use one of their top selections to obtain Turner's services.

Despite his lack of experience as a full-time back, football fans everywhere have undoubtedly seen Turner in numerous highlight reels. The talent is there, Turner has turned in a 100- yard performance once in each of the past three seasons, despite never receiving more than 13 carries in any of those games. For that very reason, Turner is expected by many to be solid if not spectacular next season.

While many other owners, including me, will deploy a wait-and-see approach with Turner before using a top 20 selection on him, there is a good amount of evidence that says he will succeed. Nicknamed “The Burner,” he has that combination of size (5' 10, 237) and speed that allow him to break through the hole and occasionally over oncoming defenders. Over the course of his career, Turner has accumulated 228 rush attempts and holds a 5.5-yard average per carry, numbers that if carried over to next season would make him worthy of a top-round pick.

Although his averages are very impressive, his backup status also make them incredibly misleading. To bring some perspective, let us take a look at last year's playoff games against Indianapolis and New England (the only times Turner has received at least 17 carries in a game). Against the Colts in the divisional playoffs, Turner had a career high 17 carries -- his previous high was 15 on January 2, 2005, against the Chiefs -- for 71 yards, a 4.2 average. He also showed the ability to break off the long run with a 19-yarder. In the conference finals, Turner got another 17 carries, churning out 65 yards, a 3.8 average. This isn't saying that Turner isn't fully capable of being a top back, just that as a starter he will not average 5.5 yards per carry. Granted, running in the playoffs is usually a bit tougher than against tired defenses in the fourth quarter of a blowout.

Turner will likely be used as the inside power back, with Jerious Norwood as the speed back. Offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey plans to use similar-style rushing system to what the Steelers did when they featured Jerome Bettis from 2001-02. While Turner should be given every chance to thrive in that role, the instability at quarterback could put more pressure on the rushing game to perform.

In the end, Turner should have a chance to break out with a 1,000-yard season but is not likely to be a good first- or second-round value. Turner should be looked at as a solid No. 2 back with high upside and should be targeted late in the second round or after. With many other more established backs available, along with the elite quarterbacks and receivers, Turner is a gamble if taken too soon. 2008 Prediction: 270 carries, 1,188 yards, eight touchdowns, 4.4 ypc.

Jerrious Norwood, Atlanta's "X" Factor
If it's not now then it may never happen for Jerious Norwood, the 5' 11 speedster out of Mississippi State. Norwood has proven to be the ultimate home run threat, and should excel if given 10-15 touches per game. Norwood is seen as the lightning to Turner's thunder, making one of the better running back duos in the NFL if all goes right.

In limited action the past two seasons, Norwood has averaged an amazing 6.2 yards per carry. Still, he only got as many as 11 carries once in all of 2007. Stuck behind long-time veteran Warrick Dunn, Norwood's style wasn't an ideal complement. With Turner now in Atlanta, however, Norwood should finally get the touches he needs and give us the highlight-reel material we have been expecting from him.

It will be interesting to see how the carries are divided initially in the Atlanta backfield. Because of Turner's inexperience as a feature back, one would expect him to receive 15-20 carries per game, leaving 10-15 carries for Norwood. In this type of timeshare, both backs could hold value, though as a No. 2 or flex-play options. While it's hard not get excited about Norwood's potential, don't overpay for a No. 3 back. Norwood will likely receive the more inconsistent split of the two backs, and while he should still have decent numbers at the end of the season, he will be hard pressed to show consistency in that type of role.
2008 Prediction: 140 carries, 714 yards, four touchdowns, 5.2 ypc

Like with all running games, success will depend on the offensive line, a unit that at moment isn't established. The Falcons ranked 26th in the NFL in rush yards last season, and are expected to address both their tackle positions in the upcoming draft. With Atlanta holding 10 draft selections overall and four within the top 48 picks, their line could get a huge boost in the coming weeks. Look for the Falcons rushing attack to be much improved in 2008.

Apr 11, 2008

Panthers Get Bang For Their Buck


It has been five years since John Fox, Jake Delhomme and the rest of “The Cardiac Cats” made Super Bowl XXXVIII in 2003. Carolina played a riveting game in which Patriots kicker, Adam Vinatieri clinched their second Super Bowl win in three years with a clutch 41-yard field goal with four seconds left. While many football fans will agree that the game was one of the best-played games in Super Bowl history, most will remember it more for the Halftime Show with Janet Jackson's wardrobe malfunction than for the back and forth action on the field.

With only one playoff appearance since that magical 2003 season, the Panthers look to address a bevy of holes heading into next season. The team has already released or refused to match on multiple offensive players from last season including: Keary Colbert, Drew Carter, DeShaun Foster, David Carr & Vinny Testaverde. Expect the Panthers to fill many their holes via the draft: offensive tackle, running back, defensive tackle and free safety. Despite the laundry list of needs, the Panthers have made some very underrated moves this off- season, primarily at wide receiver.

Bringing Back ‘Moose’
In a great team move, the Panthers brought back 12- year veteran Muhsin Muhammad. At age 35, Muhammad has been to two Super Bowl’s and has been a steady force on the field. His presence should also provide some veteran leadership for troubled receiver Dwayne Jarrett, and the rest of the young offensive players. Moose isn’t likely to return to his 2004 form, where he shocked the fantasy world to the tune of 1,400 yards and 16 touchdowns, but he should provide quarterback Jake Delhomme with the big target the Panthers sorely missed last season. Moose should not be a fantasy factor in 2008, but his presence should make the Panthers a better offensive unit, helping the players around him including Steve Smith and D.J. Hackett. After suffering through his worst statistical season since ‘97 in the fantasy black hole that was Chicago last season, Muhammad will likely record around 50 receptions, 600 yards and four touchdowns. Moose had his best seasons in Carolina with Delhomme under center so this should be a nice way for him to close out his career with the team that drafted him in 1996.
D.J. Should Be ‘Diamond in the Rough’
When you see players like Bernard Berrian receive a 6 year deal worth $44 million, Jerry Porter get $30 million and Javon Walker get $55 million despite his gimpy knees, it is absolutely shocking when a player like D.J. Hackett slips under the radar to sign a 2 year, $3.5 million contract with Carolina. Granted, Hackett hasn’t had the exposure of any of the three receivers mentioned, but when you look at a player in terms or potential, D.J. has all the tools necessary to be a Pro Bowl quality receiver. The former Colorado Buffalo has great size (6' 2, 208) and good hands. D.J. was a big time fantasy sleeper candidate heading into last season, and if it wasn’t for repeated ankle injuries, Hackett would have likely brought in similar money to Berrian. When healthy, D.J. was clearly one of Matt Hasselbeck’s favorite targets, leading the team in receiving in three of the six full games he played last season. In those three games he averaged eight receptions, 112 yards and a touchdown, while leading his team to a victory in each game.

In Seattle there was just not enough room for D.J., and deemed expendable with contracts already committed to guys like Bobby Engram, Nate Burleson, Deion Branch and even Ben Obomanu. With a path cleared for him in Carolina, Hackett should make the most of his opportunity, and benefit from the attention given to Pro Bowl receiver Steve Smith. I like Hackett as top tier No. 3 for next season as long as Delhomme returns to form after Tommy John surgery this off season. In the process of emerging from the shadows, look for Hackett to post moderate if not good numbers with around 80 receptions, 950 yards, and seven trips to the end zone. If Steve Smith or Moose suffer any type of injury look for Hackett’s number to spike, in the same thought, if Delhomme doesn’t return to form or suffers an injury, Hackett’s numbers will take a big hit.

I watched Hackett in Boulder as he lead Colorado with 1,013 receiving yards and 78 total receptions, scoring seven touchdowns in 2003. He has grown into an NFL receiver since then, so when you’re drafting don’t let his inexperience scare you away, the numbers should be solid when all is said and done.

Delhomme Returns, Gets Weapons
Reports have Delhomme beginning to throw a real football around for the first time since his injury in Week 3 of the ‘07 season. He is currently six months into his seven- to nine-month recovery timetable, and the Panthers continue to call Delhomme's surgery a success, expecting him to be 100% by summer.

This news bodes well for the Panthers who struggled mightily leaning on back ups David Carr and Vinny Testaverde last season. With Jake out, the Panthers were a virtual dead zone for fantasy owners with even Steve Smith recording only three touchdowns after Week 3 (Smith had four TD’s through Week 2). If Delhomme is truly ready to return, he will have the best trio of receivers he’s had since the ‘03 Super Bowl run. The addition of two large targets should really help Delhomme and the Panthers who don’t have a play maker at tight end. The transition should really be minimal as well, Moose already has a rapport with Jake, and Hackett received high praise from both Hasselbeck and coach Mike Holmgren on his route running abilities.

Delhomme could be a steal heading into next season, he looked as if he was going to break out last year, recording eight touchdowns and only one interception, while completing 55 of 86 pass attempts through three games. Delhomme will be entering his eighth NFL season, but really has only played in about four of them. He had his best statistical year in 2004, recording 3,886 yards and 29 touchdowns, this season. His 16 game average since 2003 shows consistency, averaging 3,488 yards and 25 touchdowns over that span. With Delhommes consistency, and increased talent at the receiver position, he should be an underrated fantasy back up, and could have a surprisingly productive season.

With everything said, a lot of Delhomme’s and the offense’s success will depend on the cohesion of the offensive line. Jordan Gross was tagged the franchise player with a $7.55 million contract, he is believed to be switching to left tackle. If he does make the switch from right tackle, it means the Panthers will have different starters at all five line spots this season. Travelle Wharton is moving to left guard to replace Mike Wahle, while last year’s second-round draft pick Ryan Kalil takes over at center for the recently released Justin Hartwig. Carolina added free agent Keydrick Vincent to battle at right guard with Geoff Hangartner. The Panthers are expected to address the right tackle vacancy with one of their top two picks in April’s draft.

Apr 8, 2008

No. 5 Leading Mavs to Playoffs

While Josh has established himself as a top option on the court for the Mavs, he is usually happy to defer to veterans Dirk Nowitzki, Jerry Stackhouse, Jason Terry and Jason Kidd when it comes to team leadership. This season with a playoff berth on the line, and reigning NBA MVP, Dirk Nowitzki hobbled with injury, No. 5 has pick up his game and accepted the burden of being the Mavs go- to guy at both ends of the floor.

"I'm trying to do it now, trying to stay aggressive throughout the whole game," Howard said. "I think we've been stepping up, we just haven't finished games like we should."

Since Nowitzki injured his left leg against the Spurs on March 23rd, No. 5 has certainly been aggressive. Over a span of seven games, he has led the Mavs with 28.3 points per game on 46% shooting, and is being rewarded for his slashing style with 58 trips to the charity stripe (8.2 per game) where he has converted 88%.

The Star-Telegram caught up with Jason Kidd to ask about Josh’s offensive impact on the Mavs:

"I think Josh understands that he's the first option," Kidd said. "It helps knowing that plays are going to be called for him and as teammates we're looking at him to step it up, and he's answered the call."

COMPOSURE
With each game critical down the stretch in the air tight Western conference, No. 5 and the Mavs can’t afford any late game mental lapses if they want to play past April. For the second time in the past five games, Friday the Show picked up a critical technical foul late in a tight game in Los Angeles. Disgusted over a foul called on him while defending Lamar Odom, Josh was called for throwing his headband to the floor in frustration. Nowitzki had to wrap him up at midcourt to settle him. Then coach Avery Johnson had a few words by the bench for his slashing swingman.

"I was talking to him about keeping his composure," Johnson said. "We've just got to keep our composure."

BUILDING A LEADER
Great players not only can score, but typically match up defensively with the opposing teams best scorer. This season, No. 5 has picked up his play both offensively and defensively, scoring a career high 20.2 points per game (25th in the NBA), while accepting the defensive assignment of the leagues top scorers on a nightly basis.

"It may not be time for him to feel comfortable putting himself in the quote-unquote leadership [role], but he understands that he has a huge responsibility," Johnson said of Howard. "He respects the leadership that we have on the team, but he knows what his role is for us and a lot of nights it's to be our best player and to be a leader."

PLAYOFF RACE
After stumbling late in Friday’s game against the Lakers, No. 5 and the Mavs used a 27-9 fourth quarter run in Phoenix to pull out a crucial victory over a playoff bound team. The win, coupled with Denver's loss at home to Sacramento on Saturday night and Golden State's loss to New Orleans Sunday morning gave the Mavs a two game cushion over the 9th seeded Warriors, and a 1.5 game lead on Denver.

Apr 3, 2008

Jacksonville Jaguars Re-tool at Receiver with Jerry Porter

The Jacksonville Jaguars are coming off their best season since 1999. David Garrard a long time back up was chosen to start the 2007 season ahead of former 1st round draft pick, Byron Leftwich who was released in the team's final roster cuts. Garrard impressed in his first full season leading the Jaguars to an 11-5 regular season record, and their first playoff win in eight years over the Pittsburgh Steelers. In the Divisional playoffs however they fell to the undefeated New England Patriots; the teams were tied at halftime, but the Patriots pulled ahead and won 31-20.

The Jaguars began the 2008 off-season by being one of the most active teams in the free agent market. In attempt to retool a pass offense that ranked 17th in the NFL, the Jaguars signed long time Raiders wide out, Jerry Porter to a $30 million, six year deal. The Jags also made a great low risk deal to acquire former 2005, 7th overall pick Troy Williamson from the Minnesota Vikings for a sixth round pick in April’s draft.

The Jaguars have lacked a true No. 1 target since Jimmy Smith announced his retirement in 2006. Former first round picks, Reggie Williams and Matt Jones have failed to live up to draft day expectations, while Ernest Wilford, the Jags receptions leader last season, signed with Miami in the off season.

Garrard Getting Help
Garrard took the fantasy world by storm a year ago, he came on strong late in the season throwing 9 TD’s in the last four games as he led the Jaguars into the playoffs. In only twelve games, Garrard was able to rack up 2,509 yards, an 18:3 TD:INT ratio, and an impressive 100.3 QB rating, good for 3rd in the NFL.

Garrards numbers are spectacular regardless, but when you look at his receiving core last season, his numbers are that much more spectacular. The Jaguars relied on a balanced aerial attack with six different receivers playing significant roles on offense. Last season, no receiver gained more than 650 yards through the air, led by Williams with 629. Though the Jaguars did boast six receivers with over 300 yards, and 28 receiving touchdowns spread over nine players, led again by Williams with 10.

The addition of Jerry Porter figures to give Garrard the go to target he lacked last season. Porter should be the most effective in short yardage possession situations, but has always had the ability to stretch the field. His presence should more than make up for the departure of Ernest Wilford, and send former No. 1 receiver, Reggie Williams into a complementary role. Troy Williamson the other off- season acquisition will likely battle with Dennis Northcutt and Matt Jones for a back up role in training camp.

With the addition of Porter, Garrard figures to be in better position to improve on his incredibly efficient ‘07 season. It’s not on par with the Patriot’s revamping of last year, but just like Brady significant improvement should be expected of Garrard next season. Considering he missed four games with injury, Garrard is fully capable of reaching 3,500 yards and 25 TD’s next season. Garrard should find himself a top 10 fantasy quarterback in the ‘08 season.

Porter’s Time To Shine
What was perceived as a weakness last season should be an area of talent and depth heading into the 2008 season. Jerry Porter gets a second chance after eight years of turmoil in Oakland. Porter has recorded 900+ yards and 9 TD’s twice in his career, but should have his best chance at topping the 1,000 yard mark this season in Jacksonville. The talent has always been there with Porter, but his attitude and injuries have kept him from fully blossoming after his breakout season in 2004. Porter will immediately take hold of the No. 1 receiver position as the main target for second year starter David Garrard. Porter has the size (6'2, 220) and skill to step in as the top possession receiver. His presence should shorten the depth chart at wide out, last season 5 receivers had 35 or more receptions. This season the majority of the looks should go to the foursome of Porter, Williams, Marcedes Lewis and Maurice Jones- Drew.

For the fantasy owner, Porter should be solid No. 3 receiver with No. 2 upside, but it remains to be seen how the looks will be divided once the season starts. Safe expectations would be around 1,000 yard mark and 6 TD’s. Of course Porter has the talent and now the surroundings to post numbers with the elite receivers, but has repeatedly disappointed throughout his career. Now teamed with Garrard, Porter will no longer have to comfort inexperienced quarterbacks going through the growing pains of the NFL, and is poised for a breakout. Porter showed what a great receiver he could be when he teamed with Rich Gannon in 2005, like Gannon, Garrard brings an incredibly accurate arm and a great deep ball. Despite entering his ninth season, Porter should have plenty left in the tank, after a year off in 2006, and a few others in which he played very little. Temper expectations and draft Porter as a No. 3.

Williamson’s Second Chance
In 2005, the Vikings drafted Troy Williamson, 7th overall looking for a deep threat after trading Randy Moss to Oakland. So far, his penchant for dropping passes has left him a ‘bust’ considering he was drafted ahead of players like , Shawne Merriman, Derrick Johnson, and Roddy White. In 2006, Williamson tied for 2nd in the NFL with 11 drops, and punched his ticket out of Minnesota in the 2007 season finale with two critical drops. First, a wide-open Williamson dropped an almost-certain 72-yard touchdown pass from Tarvaris Jackson in the second quarter and then another pass that would have yielded a critical first down later in the game.
Williamson will get his second chance in Jacksonville, but it remains to be seen where he will fit in on the depth chart. Williamson will likely have to impress in training camp to work himself past Reggie Williams who had a breakout season a year ago, leading the Jags in receiving yards (629) and touchdowns (10). Another barrier on the depth chart will be nine year veteran Dennis Northcutt who was second on the team with 600 yards, and 4 touchdowns, and figures to have the edge for the slot position. Given Williamson’s speed and athletic ability, he figures to see the field as a deep threat, either to help the Jags stretch the field or as a decoy to open up the underneath routes.

Williamson will likely play a minor role in the season to come, but at age 24 still has a bright future ahead of him. Barring significant injuries Williamson will not be a fantasy factor this season, but he will join a talented bench that already features my favorite fantasy flame, Matt Jones.