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May 14, 2008

Mock Draft Round 1

With the NFL draft behind us, lets take a look at how a the pieces could fall into place in 2008 fantasy drafts.

Adrian Peterson, Minnesota RB -- Round 1, Pick 1. While many people will hate this pick, it wasn’t as difficult as it should have been. LaDainian Tomlinson is clearly the establishment candidate. He has been the undisputed top choice in recent years, and if you value that experience over all else, he is your choice. But if I am choosing No. 1 in my fantasy draft, I take that potential, the player with the highest ceiling, and that has to be Peterson. The Vikings have the best run- blocking line in the NFL, and un like San Diego has established their identity as a run first team. Peterson is a unique talent who average 5.6 yards per carry, while breaking multiple records as a rookie. He is in great position to continue his success and topple the numbers he put up last year.

LaDainian Tomlinson, San Diego RB -- Round 1, Pick 2. In Tomlinson's worst NFL season, he delivered 1236 yards and 10 touchdowns. In his best season, he set scoring records with over 2,300 yards and 31 total scores. Tomlinson is still recovering from a sprained MCL, but he expects to be at full strength by the start of the regular season, and for the first time in his career he seems to have something to prove. While the Chargers seem to forget about their super star running back from time to time they will have to lean on him more than ever if they want to get back to the AFC championship game.

Steven Jackson, St. Louis RB - Round 1, Pick 3. After missing all of Weeks 4-7 and most of Week 8 with groin and back injuries, Jackson finished the 2007 season in strong fashion. In the final eight games he averaged 117 yards of offense and scored five touchdowns reminding us all why he was a top 3 pick last season. Despite the Rams' offensive struggles, he was fifth among backs who appeared in at least 10 games in total offense per game (106). The return of Al Saunders to the Rams as offensive coordinator should re-focus the offense around Jackson, who totaled 2,334 yards of offense (fifth all-time) and scored 16 times in 2007. When you’re looking at potential Jackson could be in a class by himself.

Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia RB - Round 1, Pick 4. Over the past two seasons, Westbrook has averaged 2,010 yards of offense and 12 touchdowns. Even with persistent injury concerns, Westbrook has found a way to keep himself among to top and most consistent backs in the fantasy game. In 28 games over the past two seasons (not counting Week 17's), he's averaged 139 yards of offense per game, totaled less than 100 yards just four times, and his season-low in 2007 was 92 yards. Not too bad, at No. 4 I’ll take a chance that he can keep it up on what could be a resurgent year in Philadelphia.

Joseph Addai IND, RB -- Round 1, Pick 5. Despite slowing down considerably down the stretch in 2007, Addai still ended as the fourth ranked back with 1,400-plus yards of offense and 15 tds. Putting his ‘07 fade behind us, Addai is just about everything you could ask for in a top five selection: age (he'll be 25 when the season starts), health (He’s played in 31 of 32 possible regular season games), offense (the Colts afforded Addai more red zone carries in '07 than any other back) and opportunity (rookie Mike Hart will be his backup, and he's not going to keep Addai from pushing 300 carries). While there are a few legit candidates at No. 5: Larry Johnson, Tom Brady and Randy Moss, Addai is far and away the best bet if your looking for an anchor in your fantasy backfield.

Larry Johnson KC, RB - Round 1, Pick 6. After showing the ability to be a top end pick when healthy, Johnson could be a relative steal if there ever is one at No. 6 overall. Johnson is reportedly prepared to enter mini-camp at 100 percent after being sidelined by a cracked fourth metatarsal in his foot, an injury he suffered against the Packers in Week 9. The Chiefs have added one of the top line prospects in the draft with Brandon Albert which should be a significant upgrade to one of the worst O-lines last season(conceded a league- high 55 sacks). With even the slightest upgrade along the line, Johnson should be able to surpass 1800 total yards and 13-plus touchdowns. At age 28, Johnson may be entering the last of his prime years, but under the ball control system run by Herm Edwards and the Chiefs, LJ should prove worthy of the high pick.

Tom Brady NE, QB -- Round 1, Pick 7. I do my best to avoid taking a QB in the first round, but when looking at the draft board it would be hard to pass on someone the caliber of Tom Brady. It would be incredibly foolish to think that Brady will approach 50 TD passes again, but I have a hard time not seeing how, with Moss back, he finishes with anything less than 34 TD passes and 4,000-plus passing yards. Even with that semi conservative estimate, Brady would still be among the top single season performers at quarterback. The Pats have run a pass first, pass second type offense these past few seasons, and with plenty of weapons still at his disposal, Brady should once again anchor many playoff bound teams in the year to come.

Randy Moss NE, WR -- Round 1, Pick 8. Last season Moss was absolutely ridiculous. In breaking the single season scoring record by a receiver, Moss amassed 1493 yards and 23 touchdowns. Last year, Moss showed immediate chemistry with Brady totaling nine 100-yard and eight multi-TD games. Moss was rewarded this off season with a three-year $27 million deal, and teamed with Brady he should haunt the dreams of secondaries again this year. In PPR leagues, Moss is a borderline top five pick, but in standard leagues with the lack of depth at the wide receiver position this is about the right spot to take the best aerial threat in the game.

Marion Barber DAL, RB – Round 1, Pick 9. This pick was the hardest thus far especially with newcomer Felix Jones expected to cut into his carries. Then again Barber did split carries with Jones the past two seasons and still managed to total 28 touchdowns. It is always an advantage to have your fantasy back tied into high powered offenses, and Dallas definitely fits the bill. Barber should see plenty of scoring opportunities, and garbage time carries to pad his stats. Running backs go quickly and just seem to hold more value in 12 team leagues, otherwise I might consider the always consistent Peyton Manning at this position.

Peyton Manning IND, QB – Round 1, Pick 10. Again, I am not an advocate of taking a quarterback in the first round, but it’s a luxury to take someone as consistent as a Peyton Manning. There’s a certain comfort knowing you have a guy that has averaged 32.2 touchdowns over a ten year span. While I understand the rationale behind bargain hunting for a quarterback in Rounds 6-10, running backs seem to always become available throughout the season for the quick and savvy owner (Ryan Grant, Earnest Graham), and that just isn’t the case at quarterback.

Frank Gore SF, RB – Round 1, Pick 11.
Mike Martz has come into town and promised to build around Gore. Frank has all the tools to once again place amongst the top producers at his position, he can catch the ball out of the backfield, pick up the tough yards, and even pick up the blitz when asked. It’s probably no coincidence that San Francisco won each of the four games in which Gore scored a touchdown, unfortunately that happened in only four games. Despite it all, Gore still finished 2007 as a top ten running back, and if they find some consistent QB play in te bay area, Gore could be a steal at No. 11.

Jamal Lewis CLE, RB – Round 1, Pick 12. Two years ago I would have laughed at myself if I knew I’d be pushing Lewis as a first round selection, but a lot like Marion Barber, his high powered offense has some say in his position. The Browns offense is simply loaded with guys with high ceilings: Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards, Kellen Winslow, even the O- line with Joe Thomas, this has allowed Lewis to excel even as he enters his eighth year. When your drafting a fantasy back you are looking for someone who is going to get opportunities to score, and Lewis led the league in carries from the 5 yards-and-in last year, and had a sneaky 248 yards through the air. Beyond that, the Browns inked Lewis to a three year deal, and chose to avoid drafting a running back in April so Lewis has a strangle hold on his spot. If he manages to stay healthy there is no reason why Lewis can’t once again find himself amongst the top ten backs in the league.

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