Looking At Running Backs in Committee

It’s a funny thing to watch a sport evolve. Back in the day it was common for a starting pitcher to go out and throw 150 pitches in complete nine inning game, a decade later and every pitcher works on a strict pitch count. The hard fouls we frequently saw handed out by players like Bill Laimbeer, Isiah Thomas and Joe Dumars from Pistons in the late 80's would now result in a Flagrant 2, ejection and possible suspensions. Change is everywhere in sports, and the NFL is no different.

The days of the feature back are slowly slipping away. Sure there are still a few examples here and there with workhorses like Clinton Portis, Edgerrin James, and LaDainian Tomlinson still racking up 300+ carries a season, but for the most part the committee has taken over. The committee hasn’t been all bad, tandems like Fred Taylor and Maurice Jones- Drew showed us last year that committees can still be productive in fantasy, while others (Denver) left us constantly guessing. Let us take a look a few situations that could shake the fantasy world.

Rashard Mendenhall/ Willie Parker- Pittsburgh Steelers: Despite winning my league last season, I still haven’t forgotten what a massive disappointment Willie Parker was to my fantasy team. After scoring 16 touchdowns in 2006, Parker scored just two last year before breaking his leg in week 16 (That would be the fantasy championship game for standard leagues). This season ‘fast’ Willie might not get a chance to redeem himself after his down year as the Steelers welcome perhaps the most complete back from the collegiate level in Mendenhall. Further hurting Parker’s value is the fact that he struggled so mightily in the red- zone last season. The Steelers actually turned to Najeh Davenport in that role relegating Parker to a yardage back and not much more. Still, Parker is coming off three straight 1,200-yard seasons and the prospect of a two-back backfield shouldn't signal a death knell for a player's fantasy value. Just ask Fred Taylor (when healthy) and Deuce McAllister (when healthy). Heck even Chester Taylor remained useful. Parker should still be valuable in formats where yards matter, but don’t expect a return to double digit scores.

Mendenhall could battle Jonathan Stewart as the most productive rookie back if things swing his way. Nicknamed "The Undertaker" because of the punishment he inflicts on opposing tacklers, the Steelers' first-round pick is the perfect blend of power, speed, blocking and durability. Playing for a resurgent Illini club last year, the workhorse broke Illinois' single-season touchdown mark with 19 scores. He also tallied eight 100-yard games, including 155 yards versus USC in the Rose Bowl, and averaged a sparkling 6.4 yards per carry in 13 contests. Bruce Arians told the Pittsburgh Post Gazette on April 29 that he would like to install a pony backfield this season. If that happens, Mendenhall will net roughly 12-15 carries per game and most, if not all, of Pittsburgh's goal-line carries. People will reach for McFadden in Round 2, but Mendenhall will be more the profitable rookie based on draft position in the late-fourth to mid-fifth rounds.

Darren McFadden/ Justin Fargas- Oakland Raiders: Fresh off his first 1,000 yard season, and a new contract worth upwards of $17 million, Justin Fargas will have to fend off a bevy of talented backs if he wants to repeat last seasons success. Fargas will likely take a backseat to McFadden at some point in the season, if not immediately. Fargas should still sneak in 10-15 carries per game, but will be hard pressed to put up numbers worthy of a fantasy No. 2, but he should be owned in case of injury or a change in the Raiders philosophy. If you want to make the Taylor-Peterson comparison here, just remember that Chester still rushed for 844 yards and seven TDs in 14 games last year.
On name and hype alone, McFadden will likely be the top rookie selected in fantasy drafts. The most recent mock draft saw McFadden going with the 23rd overall pick, while Fargas slipped all the way to the 60th pick. While McFadden dominated against the toughest competition in college, he would be hard pressed to live up the expectations I would have for him if I drafted him that early. McFadden will have to learn the pro game which will likely cost him big carries at the start of the season, he also has a very capable back in Fargas backing him up, with uber talent Michael Bush waiting for a crack of daylight to show his worth. That being said, just like Adrian Peterson, the sky is the limit for the kid, though the Raiders offensive line is nowhere near the level of the Vikings.

Marion Barber/ Felix Jones- Dallas Cowboys: Marion Barber looks poised to be even more productive this year than in years past. Recent mock drafts had Barber going as early as No. 9 overall in 12- team formats. While many fear Felix stealing carries from Barber lets remember, that he had to share with Julius Jones the last two years, and that didn't keep him from scoring 28 touchdowns. Furthering aiding Barbers value is the potency of the Dallas offense. Lets face it, in a high powered offense there are just more scoring chances, and for Barber there is a lot of quality garbage time to pad his numbers. Look for Barber to finally break the 1,000 yard barrier this season while continuing to frequent the end zone on a regular basis.
Felix Jones is an interesting pick, Jerry Jones seems infatuated with him, so much so he passed on Mendenhall for the former Razorback. Jones seems like a good bet to snake 10-15 touches per game from Barber when things are all said and done, but will be hard pressed to find the consistency needed to be a fantasy factor on a weekly basis. No one doubt Jones’ ability, he possesses tantalizing speed, and strength that often gets overlooked when you split touches with someone as flashy as Darren McFadden. Jones definitely has potential, but will likely be limited to more of a yardage type role similar to Willie Parker. That being said, like Barber, Jones has the luxury of being on the Cowboys and figures to see his share of garbage time as well. Draft Jones, but know he wont be starter worthy unless something happens to Barber.

Jonathan Stewart/ DeAngelo Williams- Carolina Panthers: Early reports have Stewart on pace to be fully recovered from off-season toe surgery by the start of training camp. By far one of the more complete backs from the draft, he has the size of a fullback (5-10, 235 pounds), the strength of an offensive lineman and the quickness of a sprinter( timed in at 4. 4 at the combine). Playing with a style that reminds pro scouts of Kansas City's Larry Johnson, Stewart proved, even through injuries, perfectly capable of handling the rushing load. According to the Charlotte Observer, "Stewart figures to start at running back and split carries with DeAngelo Williams," and that's all I need to hear. If Stewart gets a significant percentage of DeShaun Foster's 247 carries, you've got a great fourth round RB. One would assume that Stewart will get most of the goal line action as well.
DeAngelo Williams was truly one of my favorite picks in 2006, but just never seemed to get on track. With Stewart’s arrival, owners shouldn’t expect a monster year out of Williams, but last years improvement warrants a roster spot and some optimism. Last season, Williams showed some of the burst he had at Memphis averaging 5.0 yards per carry after averaging 4.1 ypg as a rookie. In a timeshare with DeShaun Foster, Williams rushed 144 times for 717 yards, while adding 23 receptions for 175 yards and five total touchdowns ( 4 rushing, 1 receiving). Williams should be considered a high upside back up. Carolina looks like they have made legit upgrades on the offensive line, and despite all the talent, Stewart is still an unproven rookie. Considering he’s slipped as far as the ninth round in recent mock drafts, Williams could turn into one of the better value picks of this years drafts.