Trade Recap- Twins and Rays swap young talent

The News

The Minnesota Twins and Tampa Bay Devil Rays completed a six- player trade sending SP Matt Garza, SS Jason Bartlett & bullpen prospect Eduardo Morlan to the Rays for OF Delmon Young, IF Brendan Harris and OF Jason Pridie. It appears Tampa Bay is playing for 2008 after years of building for the future. The Rays who needed help in their rotation land Matt Garza who joins two young talented pitchers in Scott Kazmir and James Shields. Garza who was one of baseballs top prospects went 5-7 with a 3.69 ERA in 16 appearances, 15 starts, for Minnesota after he was called up right before the All-Star break. Along with Garza, the Rays feel they made an upgrade at Shortstop with Jason Bruntlett who became a regular when he was called up in June 2006. He gave the lineup a legitimate spark that year and batted .309 in 333 at-bats for a playoff-bound team. Like many of the Twins, though, he slumped in 2007 and finished with a .265 average, five homers, 43 RBIs and 23 steals in 510 at-bats. He made 26 errors.
The Twins meanwhile add the bat they coveted in Delmon Young. Young will likely shift to Left field with Michael Cuddyer remaining in Right. Young who unfortunately is known more for his hot temper than his unquestionable talent is given a chance to reshape his image with a no non-sense team in Minnesota. In his first full season Young finished with a .288 average, 13 home runs, 93 RBIs and 10 steals in 645 at- bats. He had 16 outfield assists while playing all 162 games in right field and filling in for injured starters in Center field. Young was criticized for being impatient and chasing too many bad balls he finished with 127 strike- outs compared to only 26 walks. Minnesota also received a talented infielder in Brendan Harris who played his first full season and will be heading to his sixth team in the last five years. Harris hit .286 with 12 homers, 59 RBI's and 72 runs scored, while playing both 2nd base and short stop for Tampa Bay.

Fantasy Outlook

When you take a look at this transaction the Fantasy impact is almost non existant. All players are staying within the American League and both the Rays and Twins posses marginal offenses. Young has a chance to put his history behind him and emerge as a consistent threat with Morneau and Cuddyer, but his draft position should remain the same. Brendan Harris currently holds the edge to start at shortstop, but the Twins have expressed interest in obtaining an infielder in any trade including Johan Santana. Harris could be a nice complementary player as he has shown he can produce solid offense when given playing time, he has average power from a middle infielder blasting 12 home runs.
Matt Garza is and was a highly touted pitching prospect and proved in his debut that he has the stuff to fool big league hitters. He will likely improve on his control and increase his strike out numbers, but the Rays have been consistently inconsistent on offense the last few years and with little veteran presence I don't see this year being any different. Garza will be handed the #3 spot in the rotation so he will surely surpass his win total of 5 from last season. Meanwhile Jason Bartlett will be handed the starting shortstop position as Executive Vice President Andrew Friedman the rest of the Rays front office are very high on him. Bartlett showed a great all around game in 2006, but regressed along with the rest of the Twins team in 2007. Statistically Bartlett will likely fall somewhere in between, though his stolen bases are likely to increase on an aggressive young Tampa Bay squad.

Off Season Update: Why wait for Winter Meetings

The Winter Meetings are set for December 3rd, still a week away, yet we have seen a bevy of movement already in this young offseason. There used to be a time when moves were rarely made until GM's met at the yearly Winter Meetings, and it was this location that was being hyped with the anticipation of potential deals including Alex Rodriguez, Johan Santana & Miguel Cabrera, among others. Well if you're a GM and have waited this long, you may have missed out. Not even a month has passed since the Boston Red Sox claimed their 2nd World Series ring in the last 4 years, and already the biggest name in free agency, Alex Rodriguez has agreed to a 10- year $305 million dollar contract with the New York Yankees. The Yankees have also already agreed to resign veteran catcher Jorge Posada and soon to be Hall of Famer Mariano Rivera for $60 & $45 million respectively topping the $400 million mark before the 1st of December without making a single change to their 2007 roster.

Meanwhile their playoff counterparts the Los Angeles Angels have been busy as well, trading gold glove shortstop Orlando Cabrera for former 18 game winner Jon Garland. They also shocked everyone by signing perennial gold glove centerfielder Torii Hunter to a lucrative 5 year $90 million dollar contract, while they already had highlight reel regular Gary Matthews Jr. patrolling center. The Angels came out of nowhere stealing Hunter from then favorite Texas Rangers, Hunters hometown, which were reportedly working on a 5 year $75 million dollar contract to land the superstar free agent. In what has become common practice, Arte Moreno and the big budget Angels offered an additional $15 million to pry away Hunter from the Rangers.

All of a sudden Fantasy has become reality and to get your guy you will have to overpay. The Cincinnati Reds got their man and signed closer Francisco Cordero to a ridiculous 4- year $46 million dollar contract. Despite having a void in the bullpen, a long with a league worst 5.13 Bullpen ERA last season, you have to be shocked at this contract. Mariano Rivera held out threatening to leave the Bronx where he has been a post season legend and a sure fire Hall of Famer and signed a similar contract just a few weeks ago. Needless to say Cordero is no Rivera, and it says a lot about Cordero that he went for the money joining a Reds team destined for mediocrity over numerous playoff bound clubs not willing to add that 4th year.

Speaking of overpaying, it seems like the Marlins are trying to get away with robbery. By dangling 24 year old superstar 3rd baseman Miguel Cabrera the Marlins have found many suitors, but few will be willing to part with the package of quality players the Marlins will ask in return. It seems once again Arte Moreno is leading the pack trying to get a deal done to bring a young power hitter to protect all world outfielder Vlad Guerrero and the newly acquired Torii Hunter. Moreno has the prospects and seems willing to part with OF Reggie Willits, C Jeff Mathis, star pitching prospect Nick Adenhart or SP Earvin Santana. The Marlins have also demanded rising star 2nd baseman Howie Kendrick to be included in the deal as well. It seems likely that Cabrera will command 4 legit major league ready prospects and I do see this deal getting done as the Angels have amazing pitching depth and are desperately searching for a hitter of Cabrera's caliber. One thing that could prevent a deal is that according to MLB.com Arte Moreno thought he had a deal done twice already, but not everyone in Florida is on the same page after their Front Office shuffling, Moreno said that the Dodgers had a deal done earlier for Cabrera but the Marlins changed players on Coletti at the last minute.

That being said, the other primary suitors for Cabrera are the Los Angeles Dodgers, but recent reports have both owner Frank McCourt and GM Ned Coletti saying that they are content giving their young kids a full season, this likely being determined after trade talks fell through. This could be the genius of watching the Diamondbacks, Rockies and Indians reach the playoffs last year with little to no veteran presence or it could be a huge mistake not to push a deal through. The Dodgers unlike that Angels don't have the depth and quality in their system and if they acquired Cabrera they would likely be giving up 4 prospects that would otherwise be starting for them. The Marlins reportedly were asking for a package of Matt Kemp, Clayton Kershaw, Chad Billingsley & Andy LaRoche, which is a significant asking price, and more than would be brought in from the Angels package. So why don't the Dodgers try to put together a different package of prospects? It's because they simply don't have the quality and depth in their farm system as the Angels, and in this market teams don't have the luxury to pass on players of Cabrera's caliber as thin as it is.

On another trade front, the Mets seem determined to land Cy Young award winner Johan Santana or another top of the rotation starter. The Mets have the chips necessary to get a deal done with Mike Pelfrey, Phillip Humber, Aaron Heilman, Carlos Gomez & Lastings Milledge. The Mets also have a hole to fill in their rotation when they let Tom Glavine leave for Atlanta. Of course the media has consistently reported that Jose Reyes may be tradable, with this knowledge public any team dealing with the Mets will likely inquire at Reyes' availability. Trading Reyes is likely a last resort for Omar Minaya especially when he has other talent to package for frontline starting pitching like Johan Santana, Erik Bedard, Dan Haren & Joe Blanton who all reportedly could be had for the right price. With the Red Sox and the Yankees also inquiring about Johan Santana look for the Mets and Minaya to target Dan Haren and Joe Blanton of Oakland. Billy Beane has said he is listening to offers though with neither pitcher becoming a free agent for two years, Beane will likely ask a hefty price being in a position of power as far as the market is concerned.

With the Winter Meetings only a week away we will likely see where all the pieces are going to fall in the near future. Of course that's saying that all these trades don't get settled in the next couple of days... What we will know is what teams expect to win now and what teams will remain patient with hopes for the future.

Angels Trade SS Cabrera to White Sox for SP Jon Garland

The News

The Los Angeles Angels trade Gold Glove SS Orlando Cabrera to the Chicago White Sox for SP Jon Garland. With pitching being such a premium the Angels traded one of the best SS in the game in Cabrera who is coming off a Gold Glove year in which he also recorded a career high 101 runs scored with 8 HR-86 RBI-.301 BA. Cabrera has 1 year $9 million left on his contract and will be asked to fill a void in the #2 hole in the lineup. The White Sox meanwhile re- signed last years SS Juan Uribe just 12 days ago who now looks to fill a utility role. Jon Garland the Valencia, CA native returns home and joins an Angels rotation that already includes arms John Lackey, Kelvim Escobar & Jered Weaver. Garland who has pitched over 190 innings the last 6 years has won as many as 18 games in 2005 & 2006; he also has one year remaining on his contract at $12 million before becoming a free agent. This move will clear up money for both teams who still plan to be active in the trade market, the Angels will be looking to obtain a power hitter while the White Sox will look to add to their pitching staff.

Fantasy Outlook

Both players have been pretty steady throughout the years and will likely carry over similar numbers to their respective teams. Jon Garland likely has more upside as the Angels have one of the best bullpens in the AL along with an offense that includes Vladimir Guerrero. Garland a sinker ball pitcher has a career 4.41 ERA and likely will be around that level in 2008 but may push his career high in wins at 18. At the moment the White Sox look to fill Garlands spot in the rotation with former Philly phenom Gavin Floyd, Floyd has good stuff but questionable control and looked over matched at times last season. Cabrera heads to Chicago where he should continue to post user friendly numbers, Cabrera is a contact hitter who should post numbers around .285 90-8-60 and chip in a few SB's. To fill Cabrera's vacancy the Angels will look to a combination of Erick Aybar & Maicer Izturis to hold the spot until top prospect Brandon Wood is ready to take over. Depending on how the time share holds up Izturis has shown the ability to produce moderate numbers with sufficient AB's, with runners in scoring position last season Izturis hit .406 in in 96 AB's driving in 46 of his 51 RBI's. Keep an eye on this situation as Izturis holds 2b/SS/3b eligibility and may be a solid IF to take late in drafts.

Alex Rodriguez Off The Market

The News
Super manager Scott Boras has been put in his place recently, SP Kenny Rogers has fired Boras and decided to represent himself in contract negotiations this off- season. In addition Boras' top client Alex Rodriguez has decided to speak directly with the New York Yankees upon their request to keep Boras out of the negotiation process. Once again Boras will reap the benefits as reports confirming the Yankees have reached an outline for a 10 year- $275 million dollar contract to keep the reigning AL MVP in pinstripes for the remainder of his career. After reports during the season of Rodriguez commanding a $350 million dollar contract the Yankees may have signed A-ROD at a bargain price demonstrating Rodriguez's true desire to stay in NY. After being highly criticized for his post- season struggles the last few years Rodriguez seemed determined to re- establish himself as the best offensive player in baseball. By posting historic numbers 143-54-156-.314-24 and carrying a slumping Yankee team on his back in the early months of April & March Rodriguez easily had one of his best seasons as a professional.
Fantasy Outlook
A-ROD is still a top pick in all Fantasy drafts and will likely be the #1 overall option in next years draft. Somehow after his "struggles" in the 2006 (35 HR & 121 RBI) A-ROD slipped as far as #6 in some drafts, after this past year there is no reason he should not be the unanimous #1 overall pick.
With Rodriguez off the market look for teams to pursue Florida Marlins 3b Miguel Cabrera even harder. At the moment the Angels, Dodgers, Giants & Red Sox seem to be competing on who will give up the farm for the 24 year old slugger. Reports have the Angels dangling top young prospects Brandon Wood, Maicer Izturis, Howie Kendrick and Nick Adenhart. The Dodgers have been reportedly willing to part with a package of Matt Kemp, James Loney, Chad Billingsley and Andy LaRoche. While the Giants have been offering either Matt Cain or Tim Lincecum along with other position players though they lack the caliber of prospects being offered by the Angels and Dodgers.

Fantasy Recap- Making moves in MoTown

The News
The Atlanta Braves have traded veteran shortstop Edgar Renteria to the Detroit Tigers for SP Jair Jurrjens & OF Gorkys Hernandez. Renteria has two years $20 million left on his contract, with the Tigers holding an option for the 2nd year.

Fantasy Outlook
The Braves didn't waste any time moving Renteria to the Detroit Tigers. The Braves were openly shopping Renteria hoping to clear a path for rookie standout IF Yunel Escobar. Escobar filled in admirably for Chipper Jones at 3rd and Renteria at SS throughout last season compiling a .326 BA while playing 94 games at 2b/3b/SS. With a very reasonable 2 years $20 million left of Renteria's contract it was a little surprising the Braves didn't wait a little longer to see if they could get more value as they didn't get a great return for a player of Renteria's caliber. With that said we must all commend the Detroit Tigers on a job well done, landing one of the best SS in the NL last season and someone who has valuable playoff experience.

This move officially sends the steady bat of Carlos Guillen to 1st base which has been a problematic position for Detroit the last few seasons. Renteria is also added to a potent lineup joining the likes of Magglio Ordonez, Sheffield, Pudge Rodriguez, Guillen and the do it all man Curtis Granderson. From a fantasy perspective Renteria is in a perfect position to succeed and perhaps improve on his user friendly stat line of '07 (87-12-57-11-.332). Carlos Guillen should remain productive and will add 1st base to his position eligibility. Renteria will likely improve on his numbers from last year as part of Detroit's offensive machine, though it is unknown where manager Jim Leyland will bat the former All- Star.

With the Braves Yunel Escobar immediately becomes the starting shortstop and will likely provide his owners with a user friendly line. In only 319 AB's last season Escobar hit .329 54-5-28 and chipped in 5 stolen bases, with 500+ AB's Escobar could be a good player to take late in drafts. Jair Jurrjens will compete with Jo-Jo Reyes to be the 5th starter, but in a rotation that includes Mike Hampton, Jurrjens will likely get his chance to stick in the rotation. Jurrjens is someone to take a flier on, but keep in mind he isn't a strikeout pitcher accumulating only 13 K's in 30.2 IP. Jurrjens has shown flashes, last year he went 3-1 with a 4.70 ERA, but more telling is that in his 3 wins Jurrjens pitched 17 innings allowing only 6 hits and 6 walks and 3 ER. He projects to be a good middle of the rotation starter and should be someone taken late in drafts or watched closely as his role with the Braves becomes more clear.

Foreign Relations: The Impact of the Asian Import

It was April 1995 a beautiful night at Dodger stadium, flashes from cameras were sparkling throughout the night like a fireworks show in the stands. The media gathered in numbers meant only for October, while the Dodger crowd was raucous in anticipation of their new prize pitcher. The Japanese faithful tuned in with record numbers to cheer on their fellow countrymen and for the first time we witnessed what kind of impact the asian market could have on professional sports in the U.S . I was sitting in the Loge section with my father unknowingly witnessing a historic night in sports, and a prelude of things to come.

I was speaking of Japanese starter Hideo Nomo. After a successful career with the Kintetsu Buffaloes of the Japanese Professional League Nomo burst upon the Major League scene in 1995. As the first Japanese player to appear in the Majors since San Francisco's Masanori Murakami in 1965, Nomo went 13-6 with a 2.54 ERA and a league leading 236 strikeouts. He also started the 1995 All-Star Game at Texas. In 1996, Nomo pitched his first career no hitter at the most unlikely site in baseball Colorado's Coors Field a 9-0 victory on September 17.

After Nomo broke the barrier it seems like every year we have had at least 1 big name come from overseas whether it is the speedy all star Ichiro, the steady power of Hideki Matsui , unheralded closer Takashi Saito, or 2006 World Baseball Classic MVP Daisuke Matsuzaka. The latest player to be mentioned in making the leap across the pond is 32 year old right-hander Hiroki Kuroda from the Hiroshima Carp of the Japanese Central League.

Kuroda is known as a control pitcher possessing a fastball in the 95mph range, and projects as a middle of the rotation starter. With the demand for quality pitching at a historic high it is likely Kuroda will be courted by a number of teams and will likely command a three year deal between $21-24 million. At this time the two teams that have show the most interest in Kuroda are the Seattle Mariners and the Los Angeles Dodgers. The potential immediate impact of the Japanese players is perhaps the most intriguing aspect of this new found free agent market. Like Hideo Nomo in 1995, Ichiro made an immediate name for himself in 2001 accumulating 242 hits, 56 SB's and a .350 BA. Hideki Matsui didn't disappoint either hitting 16 HR-106 RBI and batting a solid .287 in his 2003 rookie campaign, and fresh on our minds is Matsuzaka's 15 win campaign on the way to a world series ring.

Not all Japanese players have had the type of success as the above mentioned group. Many have become key role players like Kaz Matsui, Tadahito Iguchi, So Taguchi and more. Others like Norohito Nakamura struggled and was unable to stick with any MLB club, while a few have come over without the hype and have made a large impact like Okajima and Saito. The point is these Japanese players bring potential impact that teams normally wouldn't receive from a minor league call up. Some Japanese free agents turn out to be bargains like Saito, others justify their large contracts like Dice-K and others turn out to be costly busts like Kaz Matsui for the NY Mets. Only time will tell where Kuroda will fall, but no one should doubt the potential impact he and other Japanese players can bring to a major league club.

Fantasy Update- Phillies & Astros make a move

I was watching Sportscenter last night and the ticker at the bottom of the screen read 5 player trade- HOU trades RP Brad Lidge & Util Eric Bruntlet to PHI for OF Michael Bourn, P Geof Geary & minor league OF. My first thought was it's about time!!! I mean it seems like 2 years and going that Houston has been shopping their streaky closer, and as a fantasy player he has been one of those high risk high reward players that I personally avoid unless they are available at a great value. Surprisingly the fallout of this trade as small as it would seem is quite large.


I think the biggest benefactor from this trade is Phillies Ace Brett Myers. Myers ended the season as the teams closer, a role he was "forced" into due to their bullpens ineptitude and early season injuries to the aging Tom Gordon. I never think it's a good idea to move the teams best pitcher to the bullpen mid- season, it's an adjustment of both pitching style and mentality. There was never a question of whether Myers had the closer mentality, he does...But Charlie Manuel called his number way too often letting him go multiple innings on a regular basis. Of course we all know the story Myers hurt his shoulder, which I personally expected... you got a guy coming in for a short situation throwing harder than he would as a starter pacing himself for 6+ IP and he is called on frequently (7 times in 11 days prior to injury). The blame cannot all be put on Manuel as the Phillies bullpen rank near the top in Blown Saves, not the list you want to lead. Manuel often looked to Myers to stop the bleeding and knowing Myer's competitive nature he most likely never asked for a day off. Now with this trade Myers is thrust back in the starting rotation and is a great guy to keep your eye on as he will most likely slide well below his true value due to his mixed numbers from last year. He is a great guy to target in RD 8-10 after his ADP was around 81 last season. Myers could potentially be a #2 or a solid #3 on any fantasy team next season. Along with Cole Hamels and impressive rookie Kyle Kendrick the Phillies have a good looking top of the rotation, unfortunately behind them is just one big ?


Obviously the other big impact the trade creates is Brad Lidge should immediately step in as the Philly closer. Tom Gordon shouldn't pose too much of a threat after dissapointing last season, and Lidge when he is on , is truly unhittable with that mid 90's fastball and one of the most devastating sliders in the game. Remember Philly is a hitters ballpark and Lidge has been to know implode on occasions so expectations should be held in check. Lidge does consistently provide good strikeout totals from a closer so that will help his value.

Michael Bourn is a speedy outfielder that could potentially fill the CF vacancy with rookie phenom Hunter Pence headed to RF and Berkman playing 1st base on a more consistent basis. Bourn will likely compete with OF Luke Scott for playing time, but could play himself into a larger role with his speed playing a key role at the top of the Houston lineup. In only 119AB's last season Bourn was successful in 18 of 19 SB attempts , while hitting a decent .277, and was a constant defensive replacement for Pat Burrell in left field. As of now it's too early to know what Bourn's role will be but if he shows good defense in CF and can keep his on base percentage at a reasonable level he could be a valuable sleeper pick for a manager looking for a boost in SB's. Keep an eye on this situation throughout training camp.

Beyond those 3 key players little else will be effected in the world of Fantasy. Geoff Geary likely will step into middle relief for Houston. Minor league OF Carlos Costanzo will start the season in the minor league, he is 24 and showed good power hitting 27HR for the Astros Double A affiliate. Eric Bruntlett a solid defensive utility man, and contact hitter will step into a similar role with Philly backing up their middle infield positions and possibly playing some time at 3rd base.

Dodgers Introduce Joe "Cool", What's next for GM Ned Coletti?

After two up and down seasons Grady "Gump" Little is officially out as Dodgers Manager despite his option being picked up for the 2008 season. Little stated it was a mutual agreement between himself & Coletti and that "no injustices have been dealt", but the rumors of Dodger deviation seem to hold some truth.

Regardless Los Angeles has the marquee name in Joe Torre that they desperately needed and the man that they hope can restore the status of a storied franchise and bring a World Series to Chavez Ravine. So what's next for GM Ned Coletti, It is unlikely that the Dodger front office will leave the team as is... It just wouldn't make sense to bring in a manager of Torre's caliber without revamping a team that ended their year in a clubhouse division, 4th place in the NL West and a 33-40 free fall after the All Star break.

If it were up to me I would take a page out of the Indians and Rockies playbooks by resigning all the young talent to long term deals at good value. I mean is anyone really having a second thought that All Star Russel Martin is the long term solution behind the plate? Why not lock him up like the Indians did with Victor Martinez. The Dodgers passed on trades for Texiera with the intent to give James Loney the job, he responded by hitting .382 with 9 HR & 32 RBI's in September to finish the year hitting .331 15-67 in only 344 AB's... Why not lock him up like the Indians did with Travis Hafner? This list goes on with young players like Chad Billingsley, Jonathan Broxton & Matt Kemp. Why not lock up the core of this team long term and most importantly on the cheap before they have the type of seasons that price themselves out of the Dodger market.

It's a gamble yes, but it's proven to be successful with other clubs and these young talents have played together throughout the minor league system so you feel confident that this is a core that can bring long term chemistry that is rare in a game with yearly roster overhauls. The other option is a team makeover, and what I am fearful is going to happen. Ned Coletti has two years left on his contract and is under some serious pressure to win and win now. Thus the hiring of Joe Torre, the irrational move last year of signing Juan Pierre to a 5 year contract and the rush signing of Jason Schmidt to the point where a major health concern was overlooked. Many feel the Dodgers priority is to fill the hole at 3rd base currently filled by Nomar Garciapparra and top prospect Andy LaRoche. Currently A-Rod remains the top name and with that Torre link it doesn't seem to far from reality... but at what cost $300 million $350... I mean if anyone is worth it, it would be Rodriguez, but personally I feel baseball is a team sport with 25 spots to fill and that money could bring in 2-3 key players each year instead of being allocated to a single player. The other name that's swirling around is Miguel Cabrera who could be had via trade. No doubt he would cost the Dodgers a Matt Kemp or top pitching prospect Clayton Kershaw... most likely a combination of major league ready prospects. This seems to be a more promising option as Cabrera is a proven run producer with a World Series ring and lets not forget he is only 24 years old.

Another rumor swirling around is that Juan Pierre will be moving to left. It's as if watching everyone take the extra base on Luis Gonzalez's girly arm last year never happened. Of course names like Tori Hunter, Andruw Jones, Rowand and even Mike Cameron have been mentioned as possibilities. Personally I would have no problem signing a guy like Torii Hunter, but beyond him I really don't see the long term benefit and upgrade the others would bring. The Dodgers have a gluttony of outfielders in Pierre, Kemp, Ethier and a guy I want to see get a shot in Delwyn Young. Why spend $80 million or more when you have promising guys waiting in the wings that when given a chance have performed. I know I cannot take another year of watching Matt Kemp hit .342 yet play every other game... It just doesn't make sense to me.

The other rumor that has been tossed back and forth is Johan Santana. Who wouldn't want this guy on their team? With Santana, Penny, Lowe, Schmidt & Billingsley the Dodgers would easily have the best pitching rotation in all of baseball. The trade rumor seems to consistently include Matt Kemp & Clayton Kershaw, the Twins feel Kershaw would immediately step into their starting rotation with Kemp taking the full time CF job left by Torii Hunter. This trade seems to make the most sense to me, yet makes me think the Twins know something we don't. Is Santana on the decline? He has pitched at least 219 innings the last 4 years and his ERA was 3.33 a career worst as a full time starter. I know 3.33 ERA is still amazing but when you look deeper he ended the year very poorly going 5-7 with a 4.04 ERA after the All Star break. Oh yea the Twins seem to have made some great trades in similar situations, landing them both Santana and Francisco Liriano who I hope no one has forgotten. This makes me believe the Clayton Kershaw a power lefty is ready for a shot. Maybe he can play that bridge role in the bullpen like Santana played early in his career or like Billingsley did to start last season. The bottom line is Kershaw is the top prospect in our minor league system and Kemp has all the tools to be a 5x5 superstar, do we really want to trade that for a pitcher on the decline? Don't we have Jason Schmidt to fill that role?

Sure each of these trades would make the Dodgers a strong contender THIS YEAR, but at what cost to the future. I feel like we tried this last year bringing high priced players in Schmidt, Pierre and Gonzo and we got nowhere. Like I mention in my previous post"The Importance of Youth" it doesn't take high priced veterans to reach the post season or win a World Series. This has been proven by the Marlins team of 2001 and the D-Backs, Rockies & Indians of this past year. Frankly if I'm going to lose I want to lose with our young talent. If I'm looking to build a team to win I start by building team chemistry which has been layed out like a formal invitation with the young core we have, growing and learning with each other through the minors & major league levels. I don't want to see a team overhaul, I want to see what this long awaited talented group can do given the opportunity and now a proper Manager in Joe Torre to lead the way.

Aaron Sobel is a self proclaimed expert for FantasyBaseballExpress, to view more articles written by Aaron Sobel or other writers from FantasyBaseballExpress please visit www.fantasybaseballexpress.com

2006/2007 The Importance of Youth.

This past year we truly saw what youth could bring to a team. The best record in the National League was 90-72 a .556 winning percentage owned by one of the youngest teams in baseball the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team many picked to finish 3rd in the NL West. The Colorado Rockies perhaps the story of the 2007 season won 21 of 22 before falling to the Red Sox in the World Series. What do both these team have in common? Their comprised mostly of youngsters with little to no Post Season experience and solidified by a select few veterans to lead the way.
It can’t be argued that youth didn’t play a key role in virtually every playoff team season with guys like Ellsbury, Pedroia, Carmona, Joba Chamberlain, Chris B. Young, Corpas, Ubaldo Jimenez, Seth Smith). Where would some of these teams be without the aforementioned names? But we are not the GM’s of billion dollar franchises, we are managers of Fantasy teams worth the $25 buy in we gave to our friend or that guy in the corner office. Though when you look at the teams that won you start to see a lot of familiar names, and you realize youth is just as important in our fantasy leagues as it is in real life. When I look at the teams that won their respective leagues a few names consistently jump out at me. I am going to go down the list of the impact newcomers at each position listed in order of impact.

1. 3B Ryan Braun (MIL)- This guy put himself in a class of his own. Putting up rookie numbers that we haven’t seen since Albert Pujols. He barely lost out on the ROY to Troy Tulowitzki who you'll read about shortly on this list and something tells me he's going to be competing for a lot of awards in the near future. Luckily defense doesn't factor into fantasy as much as it factors into real life otherwise Tulowitxki and Martin would be ranked well ahead of Braun. It's hard to nit pick though about a guy that hits 34 HR with 97 RBI in only 113 games not to mention adding 15 SB. There is a reason everyone rants and raves about this kid and his 5x5 talent; this article is no different.

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
113 451 91 146 26 6 34 97 29 112 15 5 .324 .370 .634 1.004

In his 113 games he put up numbers that ranked him in the top 20 of all players, and virtually locked himself as a top 15 pick in next years draft. He was a huge addition in virtually every fantasy category and the importance of getting this kind of boost from a FA pickup or a late round sleeper cannot be understated. With only 113 games played Braun put himself in an elite class of 3rd baseman with A-ROD and the Met’s golden boy David Wright with his combination of power, average & speed, he will the cornerstone of fantasy teams for years to come.

2. C Russell Martin (LAD) - Nobody outside of Los Angeles could have ever picked this offensive outburst. Among a weak class of catchers Martin established himself as an elite option. He easily topped all catchers with 21 SB, His 2nd half slump could have easily been attributed to him being over worked as he started at catcher in 145 of 162 games, which is unheard of.

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
151 540 87 158 32 3 19 87 67 89 21 9 .293 .374 .469 .843

For his 2nd year and 1st full season Martin’s numbers are remarkable and the best LA has seen since Piazza migrated East. Martin’s ADP last year was an astounding 19.4 yet he went undrafted in far too many leagues. This year Martin is primed to be competing with Victor Martinez as the first catcher drafted in 2008, and considering Joe Mauer, was off the board by round 3 Martin could be next years hot pick at a thin position.

3. 2B BJ Upton (TB) - While this pick could be questioned since he played a combined 95 games 2004 & 2006; he had never had more than 175 AB’s in a season. Another thing going against this pick was that everyone knew of Upton and what he was capable of, the only question was his playing time. Regardless Upton was drafted on average in round 20.4 of a standard 12 team 21 round roto league. Adding to his ADP his position eligibility made him a must on this list.

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
129 474 86 142 25 1 24 82 65 154 22 8 .300 .386 .508 .894

Considering his stat line and his eligibility at 2/3/OF he is rightfully ranked right at the top with second baseman Chase Utley & post phenom breakout Brandon Phillips. Considering Upton missed a month with a hamstring injury in June his 24-82-.300- 22 stat line has great chance of landing him as the #3 overall 2b in 2008. Of course his switch to CF and his position eligibility will have a lot to say with his ADP in 2008.

4. SS Troy Tulowitzki (COL)- Though he may have slumped in the limelight of October his glove had people doing double takes after seeing his Jeter-esque plays at SS. Troy boy could be credited with a lot the Rockies meteoric rise this past year. Along with stellar offensive numbers he added to an already potent lineup; Tulowitzki brought maturity and leadership at a young age and backed that up with a .987 fielding % to helped the Rockies lead the all of baseball in fielding %. Tulowitzki was left undrafted in most leagues making his numbers that much more of an impact as a FA addition.

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
155 609 104 177 33 5 24 99 57 130 7 6 .291 .359 .479 .838

In Yahoo! Leagues Troy outperformed perennial top picks Derek Jeter, Miguel Tejada, Edgar Renteria & Rafael Furcal. In his first MLB season he already is looking like one of the bigger power threats at the SS position that has suddenly has some depth. At this point many of us would expect a leap next year in fantasy friendly Coors Field and Tulowitzki could be off the board late 4th early 5th round. Quite a steal as a free agent this past year.

5. SP Fausto Carmona (CLE)- After going 1-10 in 2006 nobody drafted Carmona let alone picked him to be a Cy Young finalist. No not even me. Tied for 2nd in the MLB with 19 wins, Carmona ranked as the 12th best fantasy pitcher in 2007 ahead of notables Roy Oswalt & Halladay (Down year for team Roy).

G GS W L SV CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
32 32 19 8 0 2 1 215.0 199 78 73 16 61 137 3.06 1.21 .248

Carmona made everyone quickly forget his 2006 season with one of the best comeback years of anyone in recent memory. I think the Yankees are still having nightmare flashbacks of his sinker after his Game 2 domination in the ALDS. After going undrafted this year Carmona should be well off the boards by rounds 8 & 9. Don’t fall in love with his numbers this year though, much like Chien- Ming Wang of the Yankees, Carmona doesn’t provide elite K’s and in a tough AL you can’t bet on a repeat of his 3.06 ERA

6. OF Chris B. Young (ARI)- I think Young may have received the most pre- season hype of anyone on this list and with playing time guaranteed his speed and sweet swing were on full display. His combination of power and speed is what makes him special and with some more experience and maybe shortening that long swing a little bit he could enter an elite class sooner rather than later. Young was drafted in the latter rounds of most drafts, but likely provided his owners with more then they expected.

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
148 569 85 135 29 3 32 68 43 141 27 6 .237 .295 .467 .763

One thing that has Young listed this low is his scary Strikeout totals and low BA AVG. In 25 playoffs AB’s Young struck out a whopping 13 times carrying over from his regular season struggles. Making up for that is the fact he hit 32 HR along with 27 SB well surpassing the 20/20 preseason predictions. Unfortunately a player that hits 32 Hr usually has more than 68 RBI, but you would be wise not to let this turn you away in next years draft.

7. SP Tim Lincecum (SF)- Lincecum got a lot of hype a long with Chris Young. His tall lanky frame and unorthodox delivery had many people comparing him to Roy Oswalt and Pedro Martinez, but after this year I feel Lincecum will make a name for himself in the years to come (as much as it pains me and the other Dodger faithful). Lincecum like most young pitchers had a few rough outings that really ballooned his ERA and the hapless Giant offense could only muster up enough to net him 7 despite having 16 quality outings.

G GS W L SV CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
24 24 7 5 0 0 0 146.1 122 70 65 12 65 150 4.00 1.28 .226

Lincecum was typically a last round sleeper or a early FA pick up stocked away for the day he would be called up. Like many young pitchers the Giants monitored his innings closely and shut him down before the seasons end. Lincecum could be a steal in next years draft though he will no longer be referred to as a sleeper. Lincecum provides elite K totals and has shown the ability to command his fastball for stretches. With more experience Lincecum has the stuff to be an elite pitcher or he could head down Felix Hernandez’s path. Either way he will help Fantasy teams in 2008.

8. OF Hunter Pence (HOU)- If he only stayed healthy he would have been in the running for ROY. I mean from a fantasy perspective at least he hurt himself trying to steal second, and watching this kid play with reckless abandon has to make you smile. Pence was another impact rookie who brought the combination of power, speed and a good BA, another one of those rare 5x5 threats that a fantasy manager looks to build his team around.

G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB K SB CS AVG OBP SLG OPS
108 456 57 147 30 9 17 69 26 95 11 5 .322 .360 .539 .899

Pence was an early season call up in late April and came out red hot hitting .347 over April & May. Pence never really slowed down until he made an awkward slide into 2nd base against Pittsburgh on July 22nd. Pence went undrafted in most leagues and certainly gave a boost to the lucky owners who picked him. Likely to be a top 15 OF next year but may slip a few rounds in some drafts because of his injury much like Alex Rios this past year.

9. SP Yovanni Gallardo (Mil)- Gallardo’s mid June call up was much anticipated after he was dominating the minor league. Gallardo did not disappoint often times carrying a young Brewers pitching staff that was missing their ace in Ben Sheets for the stretch run. Between Aug. 31st and Sept. 17th Gallardo went 4-0 with a 0.45 ERA keeping the Brewers in the NL Central chase until the end.

G GS W L SV CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
20 17 9 5 0 0 0 110.1 103 48 45 8 37 101 3.67 1.27 .245

Gallardo was typically a late round sleeper pick or picked up off waivers by early may by a heady manager. With 30+ starts next year Gallardo could easily jump to a top ter level bringing solid pitching statistics across the board and not toying with owners emotions with his uber- efficient 3:1_ K:B ratio. Gallardo will be a solid option as a #3 SP so draft him accordingly.


10. CL Manny Corpas (COL)- Corpas started the year with the major league club setting up Brian Fuentes, quickly after Fuentes blew 4 straight saves to end the month of June Clint Hurdle turned the reigns over to the young gunslinger and he never looked back.

G GS W L SV CG SHO IP H R ER HR BB K ERA WHIP BAA
78 0 4 2 19 0 0 78.0 63 20 18 6 20 58 2.08 1.06 .224

In addition to Corpas’ regular season numbers he also converted 5 of 6 save opportunities in the bright lights of October giving up only 1 run in 10.1 IP. Corpas was likely a mid season waiver wire gem providing solid SV’s and ERA from a closer. For this very purpose I never recommend drafting closers too high as there always seem to be mid season surprises available at a bargain. This year alone we saw Matt Capps and Kevin Gregg bring FA relief to managers in need of a Closer. Corpas is on this list though due to his impact of the Rockies regular and post season as he added stability and a reliable stopper at the back end of a thin bullpen.


Honorable Mention: Dustin Pedroia (BOS), James Loney (LAD), Matt Capps (PIT), Corey Hart (MIL), Reggie Willits (LAA), Chad Billingsley (LAD), Jeremy Guthrie (BAL), Rajai Davis(SF), Mark Reynolds (ARI), Matt Kemp (LAD), Joba Chamberlain (NYY), Micah Owings (ARI).

Now I know it’s unthinkable to leave Dustin Pedroia the AL ROY off this list but in reality his user friendly line of 86-8-50-7 .317 ranked him the 17th best fantasy 2nd baseman behind Aaron Hill of Toronto and Mark Ellis of Oakland. In terms of real life impact he would surely be on this list but in terms of fantasy impact it’s hard to see who he would supplant in the top 10.

Aaron Sobel is a self proclaimed expert for FantasyBaseballExpress, to view more articles written by Aaron Sobel or other writers from FantasyBaseballExpress please visit www.fantasybaseballexpress.com