Ichi
ro Suzuki (OF- Seattle Mariners)
Ichiro is truly the model of consistency. Since leaving Japan for Seattle he has scored 100+ runs, had 200+ hits, stolen 30+ bases and hit over .300 in every season since 2001. For this reason Ichiro is usually the first of these three players drafted. Last season Ichiro had his finest year since 2004, when he broke the major league hits record with 262, while batting an unprecedented .372- he rewarded his owners last season with a great all around stat line 111-6-68-37-.351. Due to his consistency Ichiro remains one of the safest draft picks in baseball for the heady owner looking for a boost in runs, SB's and Average. Ichiro exemplifies a contact hitter, he does not take a lot of walks, nor does he strikeout. Last season Ichiro walked 49 times while striking out a career high 79 times. Despite his lack of walks Ichiro consistently has one of the top OBP in baseball with a .396 mark last season.
Ichiro does leave a little to be desired in the terms of power. Compared to his other counterparts, Ichiro is a light hitting centerfielder topping out with 15 home runs in 2005 and 69 RBI's in '01. Though if you can afford to take a hit in these categories or have a bevy of other power hitters, Ichiro is one of the best in terms of helping a teams batting average. One of the large concerns when regarding Ichiro is the lack of offensive talent around him. With the only offensive threat being the likes of Richie Sexson, Adrian Beltre, Raul Ibanez and rookie Adam Jones- opportunities to score runs and drive them in won't be as plentiful as they would be in CLeveland or Detroit.
Gr
ady Sizemore (OF- Cleveland Indians) Sizemore was my pick last pre- season for MVP, and while he didn't quite get to that level he certainly showed that he is capable. After three full seasons in the big leagues, Sizemore is still only 25 years old. He plays with an all out intensity similar to Arizona's Eric Byrnes, but he is truly a more talented player in terms of raw mechanics. Grady is that 5x5 player that fantasy owners covet averaging a stat line of 121-24-78-25-.285 over his last three seasons. While there is little evidence that he will be slowing down, there is substantial evidence that shows he can build on these totals. As the lead-off hitter for the Indians, Sizemore is bound to hold serve with his runs scored totals with guys like Pronk, V-Mart, Garko and Peralta all hitting behind him. In addition with guys like Franklin Gutiérrez emerging on the back end of the order, Sizemore is primed to increase his RBI totals from a year ago. If you are not already sold on Sizemore, last season he showed great patience at the plate recording 101 BB, up from 78 a year ago.
When looking for the disadvantages of drafting a guy like Grady Sizemore you have to look really hard. Grady remains the lone member of this group to hit below .300, though there is reason to believe that even this can change in 2008. Sizemore in 2006 had splits of .214 against lefties while hitting .329 vs. righties. In 2007 Sizemore showed vast improvement hitting .284 vs. Lefties and .274 vs. Righties. The reason for the large drop off vs. righties is likely attributed to that being his power side hitting 18 of his 24 HR vs. Righties. Statistically it is hard to find anything not to love about Sizemore, as a fantasy owner my biggest concern remains his all out playing style that is prone to significant injury.
Curtis Granderson (OF- Detroit Tigers)
Granderson certainly took that next step last season becoming the first player to hit 20 doubles, 20 triples, 20 home runs and steal 20 bases in a season. Now joining one of the most formidable lineups in the major league baseball with the additions of Miguel Cabrera, Edgar Renteria and Jacque Jones, Granderson is primed for another breakout statistical season. Last season was only Granderson's second full season in the big leagues, and he showed a lot of maturation by reducing his strikeout totals, while improving his batting average by 40 points to finish the season at .302. Many experts say that Granderson is not a true lead- off hitter, and of the three in this group he has the lowest OBP by 30 points at .361. That being said Granderson did show remarkable improvement in base stealing. In 2006 Granderson stole only 8 bases while being caught 5 times, In 2007 he again showed maturation in stealing 26 bases compared to only 1 time caught stealing. With all these patterns of improvement it's not hard to believe that Granderson can develop into one of the best 5x5 threats there are in this league, and owners drafting him as high as 25 overall will be banking on just that.
When looking for flaws in Granderson's game you only have to go as far as his splits. Granderson was pulled a majority of the time against lefties, usually being inserted later in the game when the lefty starter had been removed. While Granderson did hit a robust .337 vs. righties last season, Granderson looked lost at times vs. Lefties hitting only .160 in 119 AB's. Much like Sizemore did, I expect Granderson to improve on this mark in 2008 and to justify his high draft position with another record breaking year.
Decisions
When looking at these three there really aren't any clear cut favorites. All three are lead- off men, playing centerfield in a tough American League. All three give you solid averages, runs scored and stolen bases. So who do you pick?
When you are drafting everything is based on potential- are they going to repeat last years numbers, will they improve on those numbers? will they regress, or will they get injured? While it is nearly impossible to predict injuries especially with position players, potential is usually something you can gather by processing patterns from a players statistical output. Using the three players we have discussed, Grady Sizemore has shown the most potential out of the three. Sizemore stole 33 bases last season, only 4 short of Ichiro's total, but Sizmore also had 24 home runs while flashing 30+ potential. Sizemore has also shown the ability to improve his batting average from year to year. While his .285 BA pales in comparison with Ichiro's .351, Sizemore's power numbers and run scoring opportunities just seem to out weigh anything Ichiro can do at this stage in his career, especially when you take into consideration his supporting cast.
Granderson is definitely the wild card of this group, he flashed it all- power, speed and a good eye. When you take a look at it though, it's not likely that Jim Leyland will give Granderson the green light to steal as much as he did a year ago, especially with so many proven hitters behind him. I expect Granderson to imporove his power totals while maintaing his average and improving upon his run totals. I expect Ichiro to be Ichiro and deliver a magnificent stat line of 110-8-65-35-.330. But if it were me picking between these three I put my money on Grady Sizemore, who can steal you 30+ bases, hit you 30+ home runs deliver a solid BA, while being one of the league leaders in runs scored. I said it once and I'll say it again Grady Sizemore for MVP.
St. Louis in exchange for perennial gold glove winner Scott Rolen. In recent years, Rolen has suffered from a series of shoulder injuries that seriously limited his offensive production and playing time. Rolen has also had a strained relationship with manager Tony La Russa which was likely the prompting factor in the trade.
bug in recent years averaging only 113 games over the last five season. Despite the injuries Glaus has still managed to produce when healthy averaging 26 home runs and 71 RBI's over the worst stretch of his career. With that in mind and the ability of manager Tony LaRussa to bring out the best in everyone, Glaus looks to be a welcomed presence offering Albert Pujols some protection he lacked last season. While Glaus can help carry an offense when healthy, the Cardinals pitching staff is the big loser in this trade. With pitching coach Dave Duncan the Cardinals pitchers have been taught to pitch to contact putting the left side of the Cardinals defense near the top of the list in put outs each season. Last season the defense suffered with David Eckstein falling from one of the better defensive shortstops in 2006 with only 6 errors, to committing 20 errors in '07. While Glaus certainly isn't the defensive player Rolen is, Cardinals management hopes his bat will make up the difference.
